DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 030550
SWODY2
SPC AC 030549

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1249 AM CDT MON SEP 03 2012

VALID 041200Z - 051200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS/MID
MO VALLEY VICINITY...

...SYNOPSIS...
SOME AMPLIFICATION OF THE CYCLONIC FLOW FIELD ALOFT OVER THE NRN
HALF OF THE U.S. IS EXPECTED THIS PERIOD...AS A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH
ROTATES ACROSS THE S CENTRAL CANADA/N CENTRAL U.S. BORDER REGION ON
THE SRN SIDE OF THE LARGER-SCALE VORTEX OVER THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE.

AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK/DIFFUSE SURFACE PATTERN IS FORECAST DURING
THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD...BUT A MORE PRONOUNCED FRONT IS
PROGGED TO DROP SEWD ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING -- IN RESPONSE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED/PASSING
UPPER SHORT-WAVE TROUGH. OVERNIGHT...THE FRONT SHOULD PROGRESS
QUICKLY EWD/SEWD...REACHING THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND CENTRAL PLAINS
REGION BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

...CENTRAL PLAINS/MID MO VALLEY AND SURROUNDING AREAS..
UNTIL A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION DURING THE
EVENING/OVERNIGHT...LOW LEVEL AXES OF GREATER CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL
REMAIN DIFFICULT TO DISCERN ATTM. IT APPEARS MOST LIKELY THAT AS A
SHORT-WAVE TROUGH EJECTS EWD FROM THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS ATOP A
WARMING/DESTABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER...A WEAK NW-SE WARM
FRONTAL-TYPE FEATURE MAY FOCUS CONVECTIVE INITIATION...AS WILL THE
COLD FRONT MOVING SEWD OUT OF THE NRN HIGH PLAINS AREA.

WITH 25 TO 35 KT MID-LEVEL WLYS EXPECTED...SHEAR WILL SUPPORT
UPDRAFT ORGANIZATION/ROTATION...PARTICULARLY NE OF THE WEAK WARM
FRONT WHERE LOW-LEVEL FLOW MAY REMAIN MORE BACKED/SELY. ALONG WITH
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED WIND/HAIL...A TORNADO OR TWO MAY ALSO OCCUR
ACROSS THIS AREA.

STORMS MAY CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE COLD FRONT
CONTINUES TO ADVANCE SEWD AND MODEST LOW-LEVEL JET DEVELOPMENT
OCCURS WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR. SEVERE THREAT...THOUGH...SHOULD
GRADUALLY WANE OVERNIGHT.

..GOSS.. 09/03/2012

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