DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS03 KWNS 110729
SWODY3
SPC AC 110727

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0227 AM CDT TUE SEP 11 2012

VALID 131200Z - 141200Z

...SYNOPSIS...

SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED WITHIN BELT OF STRONGER WLYS WILL ADVANCE
THROUGH ONTARIO...UPPER MS VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES THURSDAY. FARTHER
SOUTH...THE UPPER LOW THAT HAS BEEN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE SWRN
STATES MAY SHEAR EWD AS IT MOVES INTO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS. ANOTHER
WEAK UPPER LOW CIRCULATION WILL PERSIST OVER THE SERN STATES. AT THE
SFC...A COLD FRONT SHOULD EXTEND FROM THE GREAT LAKES SWWD INTO THE
SRN HIGH PLAINS 12Z THURSDAY AND CONTINUE SLOWLY SWD DURING THE DAY.


...SWRN THROUGH NCNTRL TX INTO SERN OK...

LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL VEER TO SELY OVER THE WRN GULF WEDNESDAY AND
CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY ALONG SWRN PERIPHERY OF SERN U.S. SFC HIGH
PRESSURE. THIS FLOW REGIME WILL ADVECT RICHER MOISTURE /MID-UPPER
60S DEWPOINTS/ THROUGH PARTS OF TX WITH LOW-MID 60S AS FAR NORTH AS
OK. MOISTENING BOUNDARY LAYER AND NEWD ADVECTING PLUME OF MID-HIGH
LEVEL SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN A SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN
PW VALUES FROM SWRN TX THROUGH SRN OK PORTION OF WARM SECTOR. SFC
HEATING MAY BOOST MLCAPE TO 1500-2000 J/KG...AND STORMS WILL LIKELY
DEVELOP ALONG AND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AS IT ADVANCES SWD. WEAK
VERTICAL SHEAR WILL EXIST IN THIS REGION SUPPORTING MULTICELL STORM
MODES. A FEW STORMS MAY BECOME CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED STRONG
WIND GUSTS WHERE ENOUGH SFC OCCURS TO STEEPEN LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES...BUT OVERALL THREAT APPEARS TOO MARGINAL FOR MORE THAN 5%
SEVERE PROBABILITIES.

..DIAL.. 09/11/2012

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