DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS03 KWNS 290712
SWODY3
SPC AC 290711

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0211 AM CDT SAT SEP 29 2012

VALID 011200Z - 021200Z

...CENTRAL/ERN GULF STATES...

LATEST GFS/ECMWF ARE IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING THE
EVOLUTION OF UPPER TROUGH AS IT SHIFTS ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY
DURING THE DAY3 PERIOD. BOTH MODELS INSIST A NOTABLE SFC REFLECTION
WILL DEVELOP IN RESPONSE TO THIS FEATURE OVER THE UPPER TX COAST
THEN TRACK INTO ECNTRL MS BY 01/12Z. SUBSEQUENT MOVEMENT ACROSS NRN
AL WILL OCCUR DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS AND WITH A FOCUSED LLJ ON
THE ORDER OF 45KT THIS WILL ENSURE SFC DEW POINTS AOA 70F WILL
SPREAD INLAND AHEAD OF SURGING FRONTAL ZONE. ONE NEGATIVE FOR
POSSIBLE ORGANIZED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THE POOR LAPSE RATE
ENVIRONMENT. IN ALL LIKELIHOOD PSEUDO-ADIABATIC PROFILES WILL BE
COMMON AND THIS SHOULD LIMIT SBCAPE TO ROUGHLY 500-1000 J/KG. WITH
SWLY MID LEVEL FLOW EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN EXCESS OF 50KT ACROSS
THIS REGION MORE THAN ADEQUATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL EXIST FOR
SUSTAINING ORGANIZED...POTENTIALLY ROTATING UPDRAFTS. AT THIS TIME
WILL ONLY INTRODUCE LOW SEVERE PROBS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE POSSIBILITY
FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND PERHAPS A FEW TORNADOES. IF IT
BECOMES MORE CLEAR THAT INSTABILITY WILL BE GREATER THAN CURRENTLY
EXPECTED THEN ENHANCED SEVERE PROBS WILL BE WARRANTED ACROSS THIS
REGION.

..DARROW.. 09/29/2012

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