DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 140846
SWOD48
SPC AC 140845

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0345 AM CDT FRI SEP 14 2012

VALID 171200Z - 221200Z

...DISCUSSION...
BY END OF DAY-4/17TH-18TH...EXPECT HEIGHT FALLS OVER CENTRAL
CONUS...UPPER GREAT LAKES AND MS VALLEY...RESULTING FROM
CONTINUATION OF AMPLIFIED SHORTWAVE PROCESSES DESCRIBED IN DAY 2-3
OUTLOOKS. THAT...ALONG WITH STG NERN-PAC RIDGING...WILL LEAD TO
HIGH-AMPLITUDE LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER UPPER GREAT LAKES AND MS VALLEY
THROUGH REMAINDER DAY 4-8 PERIOD. MEANWHILE...SRN-STREAM TROUGHING
NOW OVER NRN MEX AND W TX SHOULD EJECT EWD ACROSS GULF COAST STATES
AND MID-ATLC REGION DAYS 4-5/17TH-19TH. THIS MAY BE PRECEDED BY
SOME SVR POTENTIAL OVER SERN CONUS ALONG/AHEAD OF SFC COLD FRONT.
GIVEN UNCERTAINTIES/INCONSISTENCIES ON TIMING AND AMPLITUDE OF
SHORTWAVES IN BOTH NRN AND SRN STREAMS...AND DISCREPANCIES IN PROGS
OF SFC FRONT AND OTHER RELATED LOW-LEVEL MASS FIELDS...THREAT
APPEARS TOO CONDITIONAL TO JUSTIFY AOA-30% LINE ATTM.

..EDWARDS.. 09/14/2012

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