DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 020848
SWOD48
SPC AC 020847

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0347 AM CDT SUN SEP 02 2012

VALID 051200Z - 101200Z

...DISCUSSION...
MEDIUM-RANGE MODELS IN DECENT LARGE-SCALE AGREEMENT THROUGH MUCH OF
THIS FORECAST PERIOD...THOUGH SUBTLE DIFFERENCES ALOFT -- MAINLY
PERTAINING TO A DIGGING SHORT-WAVE TROUGH ON THE REAR OF THE
LARGE/SLOW-MOVING CANADIAN VORTEX. BOTH MODELS DEPICT THIS DIGGING
FEATURE -- PROGGED TO MOVE INTO THE NRN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION DAY 5
/THU 9-6/. HOWEVER...THE GFS MAINTAINS A MORE WRN TRACK WITH THIS
FEATURE -- WHICH RESULTS IN SUBSTANTIAL SURFACE PATTERN DIFFERENCES
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS DAY 6 /FRI. 9-7/ -- AND THEN ACROSS THE OH
VALLEY REGION DAY 7 /SAT. 9-8/.

THUS...WITH ANY SEVERE POTENTIAL DAY 5 /WED. 9-5/ INSUFFICIENT TO
WARRANT 30% AREAL OUTLINE AND THREAT BEYOND THIS PERIOD UNCERTAIN
DUE TO MODEL DIFFERENCES...WILL REFRAIN FROM ISSUANCE OF ANY AREAL
HIGHLIGHTS THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD.

..GOSS.. 09/02/2012

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