ACUS48 KWNS 200833
SWOD48
SPC AC 200832
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0332 AM CDT THU SEP 20 2012
VALID 231200Z - 281200Z
...DISCUSSION...
IN MID-UPPER LEVELS...MEAN TROUGHING SHOULD PERSIST OVER GREAT LAKES
AND MS VALLEY REGION THROUGH MOST OF PERIOD...ALTHOUGH SOME
DEAMPLIFICATION AND NET HEIGHT RISES ARE PROGGED STARTING
DAY-5/23RD-24TH. MEANWHILE...WRN CONUS RIDGING WILL BREAK DOWN AS
BELT OF WLYS AND ASSOCIATED PERTURBATIONS MOVE ASHORE BETWEEN CA AND
AK PANHANDLE. FIRST OF THOSE PERTURBATIONS -- NOW APPARENT IN
MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY AS CYCLONE OFFSHORE ORE -- SHOULD MOVE
ASHORE PAC NW DAY-3 THEN REACH GREAT BASIN DAY-5.
THEREAFTER...PROGS VARY CONSIDERABLY ON WHETHER IT WILL REMAIN
CLOSED/GREAT-BASIN LOW OR EJECT EWD OVER CENTRAL/NRN PLAINS AS OPEN
WAVE. AHEAD OF THIS PROCESS...TSTM EPISODES ARE POSSIBLE DAYS
5-8/24TH-28TH OVER PORTIONS CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS. KEY DETAILS IN
SHORTWAVE PROGS...AND RELATED EFFECTS ON LOW-LEVEL BOUNDARIES AND
MASS FIELDS...APPEAR TOO UNCERTAIN TO DRAW SPECIFIC SVR AREAS
ATTM...ESPECIALLY AOA 30% PROBABILITY LEVELS.
..EDWARDS.. 09/20/2012
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