DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 260845
SWOD48
SPC AC 260844

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0344 AM CDT WED SEP 26 2012

VALID 291200Z - 041200Z

...DISCUSSION...
CURRENT RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN REMARKABLY GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD...WITH THE ONLY SUBSTANTIAL DIFFERENCE
BEING THE EVOLUTION OF AN ERN PACIFIC/W COAST SYSTEM NOT EXPECTED TO
AFFECT THE MAINLAND UNTIL DAY 8 /THU. 10-4/.

PRIOR TO THIS...IT APPEARS THAT TROUGHING WILL PERSIST OVER THE ERN
U.S. MOST OF THE PERIOD...AS AN UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER QUEBEC AT
THE START OF THE PERIOD CUTS OFF AND RETROGRADES SSWWD ACROSS THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION DAYS 4 /SAT. 9-29/ AND 5 /SUN. 9-30/.
WHILE SOME CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE SERN U.S.
AHEAD OF A WEAK FRONT DAY 4...DEGREE OF POTENTIAL SHOULD REMAIN
LIMITED. WITH THE FRONT THEN FORECAST TO SHIFT OFFSHORE DAY 5 AS
THE UPPER LOW/TROUGH EXPANDS...ANY CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL SHOULD
BECOME CONFINED TO FL.

WITH HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND RIDGING ALOFT EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL INTO THE CENTRAL U.S. DURING THIS TIME...CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED -- AND OVERALL...NO AREAS OF
ENHANCED SEVERE PROBABILITY ARE EVIDENT THIS FORECAST.

..GOSS.. 09/26/2012

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