ACUS48 KWNS 290827
SWOD48
SPC AC 290826
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0326 AM CDT SAT SEP 29 2012
VALID 021200Z - 071200Z
...DISCUSSION...
LATEST MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN DISAGREEMENT REGARDING THE SPEED
AT WHICH THE LOWER MS VALLEY TROUGH EJECTS NEWD INTO THE OH VALLEY.
THE ECMWF SUGGESTS THIS PROCESS OCCURS DURING THE DAY4 PERIOD AS
STRONG MID-HIGH LEVEL FLOW TRANSLATES INTO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC
REGION WHILE THE GFS IS MUCH SLOWER WITH THE TROUGH AXIS ALONG THE
MS/AL BORDER AT 03/12Z. NEEDLESS TO SAY A RECOVERING WARM SECTOR
WILL BE REQUIRED FOR SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION NECESSARY FOR
ROBUST/ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS. WITH CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING THE SPEED/MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER TROUGH PREDICTABILITY WILL
REMAIN TOO LOW TO DELINEATE A SIGNIFICANT ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT
DURING THE DAY4-8 TIME FRAME.
..DARROW.. 09/29/2012
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