DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 030853
SWOD48
SPC AC 030853

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0353 AM CDT MON SEP 03 2012

VALID 061200Z - 111200Z

...DISCUSSION...
SUBSTANTIAL DIVERGENCE IN MEDIUM-RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS BEGINS DAY 5
/FRI. 9-1/...AS THE PERSISTENT CANADIAN VORTEX SHIFTS EWD TOWARD ERN
CANADA AND A SHORTER-WAVELENGTH FEATURE DIGS SEWD IN NWLY CYCLONIC
FLOW ON THE WRN FRINGE OF THE LARGER-SCALE LOW.

THE GFS -- LIKE 24 HOURS AGO -- REMAINS SLOWER...WEAKER...AND
FARTHER W WITH THIS FEATURE...RESULTING IN FAIRLY SUBSTANTIAL
DIFFERENCES IN SURFACE PATTERN EVOLUTION AS WELL.

PRIOR TO THE DIVERGENCE IN SOLUTIONS...SEVERE POTENTIAL IS APPARENT
DAY 4 /THU. 9-6/ ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS REGION...AS THE DIGGING
SHORT-WAVE FEATURE HEADS SEWD ACROSS THE NRN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION --
DRIVING SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.
RESULTING LOW-LEVEL SELYS BENEATH 30 TO 40 KT WLYS ATOP THE WARM
SECTOR WILL YIELD SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED STORMS...AND
ASSOCIATED WIND/HAIL THREATS. HOWEVER...THREAT DOES NOT APPEAR
QUITE SUBSTANTIAL ENOUGH ATTM TO CONFIDENTLY INTRODUCE A 30%
EQUIVALENT THREAT AREA.

BEYOND DAY 4...PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED SOLUTION DEVIATIONS PRECLUDE
CONSIDERATION OF THREAT AREAS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

..GOSS.. 09/03/2012

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