MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1913

ACUS11 KWNS 071841
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 071841
MOZ000-072015-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1913
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0141 PM CDT FRI SEP 07 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF MO

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH LIKELY

VALID 071841Z - 072015Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED BY
ABOUT 2000Z AS THE THREAT FOR SVR WIND/HAIL INCREASES THIS
AFTERNOON.

DISCUSSION...A CLUSTER OF ELEVATED CONVECTION IN KS IN ASSOCIATION
WITH A MID-LEVEL IMPULSE CONTINUES TO BE STEERED EWD ATOP A
WWD/NWD-GRADUALLY-SLOPING FRONT THAT INTERSECTS THE SFC FROM N-CNTRL
TO SWRN MO INTO NERN OK. AS THIS CONVECTION ENCOUNTERS INCREASING
INSTABILITY...ESPECIALLY NEAR AND EAST OF THE SFC FRONT WHERE
MODIFIED SOUNDINGS YIELD MLCAPE OF 1500-2500 J/KG...IT SHOULD
INTENSIFY WHILE BECOMING INCREASINGLY SFC-BASED. ALSO...A BAND OF
BOUNDARY-LAYER CUMULUS DEVELOPING INVOF A FRONTAL SEGMENT IN N-CNTRL
MO MAY EVOLVE INTO DEEPER CONVECTION WITH ADDITIONAL DIURNAL
HEATING/DESTABILIZATION. EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR MAGNITUDES OF 20-35
KT...AND UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES PER SPRINGFIELD VWP
DATA...SUGGEST ORGANIZED LINE SEGMENTS WITH DMGG WIND GUSTS WILL BE
OF CONCERN...WITH SVR HAIL ALSO POSSIBLE.

..COHEN/THOMPSON.. 09/07/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...EAX...

LAT...LON 36689399 37339454 38849447 39409305 39689171 38779098
37689099 36749166 36529311 36689399

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