MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1915

ACUS11 KWNS 071945
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 071944
OKZ000-072145-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1915
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0244 PM CDT FRI SEP 07 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CNTRL/WRN OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 071944Z - 072145Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...ISOLATED SVR TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS. ONLY SPORADIC INSTANCES OF SVR STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE...WHICH SHOULD PRECLUDE THE NEED FOR WW ISSUANCE.

DISCUSSION...A SHALLOW COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM TULSA TO THE NORTH
SIDE OF THE OKC AREA TO NW OF ALTUS...WITH THE FRONTAL SURFACE
GRADUALLY SLOPING NWD/NWWD TOWARD A MID-LEVEL TROUGH. MLCAPE OF
400-1000 J/KG IS PRESENT ON EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT IN CNTRL/WRN OK
PER MODIFIED 12Z NORMAN RAOB. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS
MAY DEVELOP WITHIN THE ZONE OF FRONTAL ASCENT AND ALONG A
PRE-FRONTAL HOT-THERMAL AXIS ALONG WHICH TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN TO
100-105F. HOWEVER...THE SVR THREAT SHOULD BE LIMITED BY A COUPLE OF
FACTORS: /1/ DEWPOINTS HAVING MIXED OUT INTO THE LOWER 50S AHEAD OF
THE FRONT SUPPORTING RELATIVELY MEAGER INSTABILITY AMIDST WEAK DEEP
SHEAR...AND /2/ WEAK POST-FRONTAL INHIBITION BEING JUXTAPOSED WITH
THE ZONE OF RELATIVELY STRONGER DEEP SHEAR. AS SUCH...ONLY SPORADIC
INSTANCES OF SVR STORMS ARE EXPECTED...AIDED BY STEEP LOW-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF THE FRONT WHERE SFC
TEMPERATURE-DEWPOINT SPREADS EXCEED 40F.

..COHEN/THOMPSON.. 09/07/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TSA...OUN...

LAT...LON 34869620 34399727 34419845 34919960 35559982 36169896
36469757 36399679 35979623 34869620

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