MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1916

ACUS11 KWNS 072010
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 072009
ARZ000-072115-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1916
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0309 PM CDT FRI SEP 07 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CNTRL/NRN AR

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 072009Z - 072115Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...IN THE NEAR-TERM...AN ISOLATED SVR THREAT WILL BE POSSIBLE
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS ACROSS PORTIONS OF CNTRL/NRN AR FOR
WHICH WW ISSUANCE IS UNLIKELY. HOWEVER...THE SVR THREAT WILL
INCREASE LATER -- ESPECIALLY AFTER 2300Z IN N AR -- WHICH WILL
LIKELY NEED TO BE ADDRESSED BY WW ISSUANCE.

DISCUSSION...ISOLATED CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DEVELOP ACROSS
CNTRL/N-CNTRL AR ALONG SUBTLE SFC CONFLUENCE AXES...WITH THE
STRONGEST ACTIVITY OVER N-CNTRL AR PERHAPS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
MINOR MID-LEVEL PERTURBATION. MLCAPE OF 1500-3000 J/KG AMIDST
GENERALLY 25-35 KT OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR WILL YIELD A THREAT FOR
STRONG UPDRAFTS/DOWNDRAFTS...WITH ISOLATED SVR WIND/HAIL POSSIBLE.
IN THE NEAR-TERM...THE ABSENCE OF A STRONGER/MORE ORGANIZED FORCING
MECHANISM FOR ASCENT WILL KEEP CONVECTIVE COVERAGE LIMITED.
HOWEVER...LATER IN THE DAY -- ESPECIALLY AFTER 2300Z IN N AR --
FRONT-RELATED CONVECTION WILL LIKELY MOVE INTO THE AREA WITH AN
INCREASING SVR THREAT...LIKELY WARRANTING WW ISSUANCE.

..COHEN/THOMPSON.. 09/07/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MEG...LZK...TSA...

LAT...LON 35879049 34969091 34389182 34319345 34799431 35409422
35679361 36119311 36369266 36419193 36379093 35879049

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