MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1948

ACUS11 KWNS 142133
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 142133
NYZ000-142230-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1948
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0433 PM CDT FRI SEP 14 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...NY ADIRONDACKS AND FINGER LAKES

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 142133Z - 142230Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A FEW STRONG STORMS...PERHAPS CAPABLE OF AN ISOLD WIND
DAMAGE RISK WILL PROBABLY PERSIST FOR A FEW MORE HOURS BEFORE
WEAKENING NEAR SUNSET. IF STORMS INCREASE IN INTENSITY SWD TO THE
PA/NY BORDER...THEN WATCH PROBABILITIES WILL INCREASE.

DISCUSSION...21Z SURFACE MESOANALYSIS SHOWS A SURFACE LOW INVOF NERN
LAKE ONTARIO WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING EWD AND DRAPED FROM THE ST.
LAWRENCE VALLEY SSWWD INTO WRN NY. A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS
MOVING INTO THE REGION FROM THE LAKE HURON VICINITY THIS
EVENING...WITH AN ATTENDANT INCREASE IN FORCING FOR ASCENT AND A
STRENGTHENING WIND PROFILE.

RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A MIX OF LOW TOPPED TSTMS IN THE FORM OF CELLS
AND BROKEN LINE SEGMENTS...AND THIS CONVECTION WILL AFFECT THE
FINGER LAKES REGION NWD NEAR THE ONTARIO/NY BORDER OVER THE NEXT 1-2
HRS. RADAR TRENDS OVER THE PAST HOUR HAVE SHOWN A GRADUAL INCREASE
IN INTENSITY...WITH A SUPERCELL EXHIBITING PERSISTENT ROTATION
TRAVERSING THE NRN SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO. THIS STORM IS LOCATED
NEAR THE SURFACE LOW AND WILL PROBABLY AFFECT PORTIONS OF ST.
LAWRENCE COUNTY NY PRIOR TO 2230Z. ALTHOUGH ONLY MODEST
MOISTURE...CHARACTERIZED BY UPPER 50S DEWPOINTS...AND INSTABILITY
ARE PRESENT...THE STRENGTH OF FORCING WILL LIKELY AID IN SUSTAINING
THE STORMS FOR AT LEAST SEVERAL MORE HOURS. THE STRONGEST STORMS
MAY BE CAPABLE OF A WIND DAMAGE RISK.

..SMITH/CORFIDI.. 09/14/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BTV...ALY...BGM...BUF...

LAT...LON 42087828 42987742 44587640 45297512 45167334 44697355
43257475 42377631 42027763 42087828

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