ACUS11 KWNS 190200
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 190200
RIZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-190300-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1975
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0900 PM CDT TUE SEP 18 2012
AREAS AFFECTED...SRN CT...LONG ISLAND
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 646...
VALID 190200Z - 190300Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 646 CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...PORTION OF QLCS IN SRN CT...WRN LONG ISLAND MAY NOT
COMPLETELY CLEAR WW 646 PRIOR TO SCHEDULED EXPIRATION OF WW 646. A
1-HR TEMPORAL EXTENSION BY WFO OKX MAY BE WARRANTED.
DISCUSSION...QLCS EXTENDED FROM HARTFORD COUNTY CT TO WRN SUFFOLK
COUNTY NY. AN INCREASE IN LIGHTNING AND CLOUD TOP COOLING HAS
OCCURRED IN THE PAST HOUR WITH THE INTENSITY OF THE LINE LIKELY
AT/NEAR PEAK GIVEN A FAIRLY ROBUST RADAR REFLECTIVITY GRADIENT. WIND
GUSTS AROUND 40 KT HAVE BEEN OBSERVED...SUPPORTED BY 65-70 KT FLOW
AT 1 KM PER OKX RAOB/VWP DATA. ALTHOUGH BUOYANCY IS MINIMAL WITH
SBCAPE AROUND 250 J/KG PER 00Z OKX RAOB...THE VERY STRONG SHEAR
COULD HELP YIELD A BRIEF TORNADO.
..GRAMS.. 09/19/2012
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...BOX...OKX...
LAT...LON 41797251 41817189 41697161 41117167 40577274 40567334
41567275 41797251
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