MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1976

ACUS11 KWNS 190310
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 190309
MEZ000-MAZ000-NHZ000-RIZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-190415-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1976
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1009 PM CDT TUE SEP 18 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN NEW ENGLAND

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 647...

VALID 190309Z - 190415Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 647
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...WEAKENING CONVECTIVE LINE MAY POSE A LINGERING THREAT FOR
ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

DISCUSSION...REFLECTIVITY GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEEP
CONVECTIVE LINE FROM SRN NH TO ERN LONG ISLAND HAS WEAKENED IN THE
PAST HOUR /ESPECIALLY WITH NRN EXTENT/. ALTHOUGH LOW-LEVEL WIND
PROFILES ARE AS INTENSE AS EARLIER...THE DOWNSTREAM AIR MASS IS NOT
AS UNSTABLE INTO ERN MA/RI. MODIFIED 00Z CHH RAOB SUGGESTS BUOYANCY
IS SHALLOW AND LIMITED. WITH JUST A WEAK RISE/FALL PRESSURE
COUPLET...LITTLE APPRECIABLE INCREASE IN INTENSITY IS ANTICIPATED.
IN FACT...SWLY WIND GUSTS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LINE SHOULD LARGELY BE
WEAKER THAN GRADIENT-DRIVEN SLYS AHEAD OF IT.

..GRAMS.. 09/19/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...OKX...

LAT...LON 43107159 43207124 43217070 42097058 41357107 41117162
41157197 41687220 43107159

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