Saturday, September 29, 2012

MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2005

ACUS11 KWNS 292150
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 292149
NCZ000-SCZ000-292245-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2005
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0449 PM CDT SAT SEP 29 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...UPSTATE SC...CNTRL NC

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 292149Z - 292245Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...BRIEF SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF AN ISOLD TORNADO AND/OR HAIL
AND DMGG WINDS. DUE TO THE BRIEF/ISOLD NATURE...A WW IS NOT
CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED.

DISCUSSION...A FEW WEAK SUPERCELLS HAVE BEEN NOTED INVOF A SURFACE
LOW LOCATED ACROSS N CNTRL SC EXTENDING NEWD INTO S CNTRL NC...AND
ALONG AN APPARENT AREA OF SURFACE CONFLUENCE THAT IS SAGGING ESEWD.
AREA VAD WIND PROFILE DATA IS SHOWING APPROXIMATELY 43 KT 0-6 KM
SHEAR...AND WITH BACKED LOW LEVEL WINDS INVOF THE AFOREMENTIONED
SURFACE LOW /ALBEIT LIGHT/...AT LEAST BRIEF ROTATION HAS BEEN
OBSERVED WITH STORMS THAT HAVE BECOME SUSTAINED. CLOUD COVER APPEARS
TO HAVE LIMITED STRONGER SURFACE-BASED DESTABILIZATION...THOUGH THE
ONGOING STORMS ARE PROGRESSING INTO A RELATIVE MAXIMUM WHERE BREAKS
IN THE CLOUDS HAVE ALLOWED FOR TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE MID-70S
TO LOWER 80S. AS SUCH...A NARROW TEMPORAL THREAT MAY EXIST FOR A
COUPLE OF SEVERE STORMS PRIOR TO NOCTURNAL COOLING AND SUBSEQUENT
BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZATION.

..HURLBUT/CARBIN.. 09/29/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...RAH...ILM...CAE...GSP...

LAT...LON 34598192 35168038 35397923 35217860 34757856 34277919
34028017 33858102 33958190 34598192

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