DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 061621
SWODY1
SPC AC 061619

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1119 AM CDT SAT OCT 06 2012

VALID 061630Z - 071200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SRN PLAINS/LOWER MS VALLEY INTO THE MIDDLE/NRN ATLANTIC COAST...
A BROAD LONG WAVE TROUGH FROM THE PLAINS TO THE EASTERN STATES IS
EXPECTED TO PERSIST AS A SERIES OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS TRANSLATE
THROUGH THE FLOW PATTERN. ONE SHORT WAVE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL
MOVE ACROSS NRN NEW ENGLAND...WHILE UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE MOVING SEWD
TOWARD THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS IS FORECAST TO MOVE TOWARD THE MIDDLE
MS VALLEY TONIGHT. DYNAMIC FORCING FOR LARGE SCALE ASCENT
ASSOCIATED WITH THESE FEATURES WILL REMAIN PRIMARILY TO THE
NORTH/NORTHWEST OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY FROM WRN NEW
ENGLAND SWWD ALONG THE APPALACHIANS AND ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY
AND SRN TX. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING EWD/SEWD
THROUGH THE PERIOD...EXTENDING FROM THE NC/SC COASTAL WATERS ACROSS
SERN GA AND INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO BY LATE TONIGHT.

ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND REGIONS OF CONVECTION ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE FROM ERN OK EWD ACROSS THE SRN APPALACHIANS. WEAK
SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT FROM PARTS OF THE
MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES INTO NEW ENGLAND MAY SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF
ISOLATED STORMS IN THESE REGIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...ALTHOUGH INCREASING CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO TEMPER THE
MAGNITUDE OF DIABATIC HEATING AND DESTABILIZATION AHEAD OF THE
FRONT.

...FL PENINSULA INTO EXTREME SERN GA...
12Z SOUNDINGS INDICATE RELATIVELY COOL MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES /MINUS
8-10C AT 500 MB/ AND AMPLE MOISTURE WITH PW VALUES OF 1.8-1.9
INCHES. STRONG HEATING WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED DESTABILIZATION
INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH MLCAPE REACHING 2000-2500 J/KG. LATEST
OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE INDICATES CIN IS CONTINUING TO WEAKEN WHICH WILL
PROMOTE INCREASING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON...INITIALLY
ALONG SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES...WITH SUBSEQUENT UPDRAFT INITIATION
ENHANCED BY OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS. RELATIVELY WEAK FLOW IN
THE LOWEST 6-8 KM AGL WILL FAVOR PULSE STORM TYPES...BUT STRONGER
INSTABILITY AND HIGH PW/ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION LOADING PROCESSES
MAY RESULT IN A FEW WET MICROBURSTS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
WEAK FLOW ALOFT SUGGESTS ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT LIKELY.

..WEISS/SMITH.. 10/06/2012

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