DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 151939
SWODY1
SPC AC 151937

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0237 PM CDT MON OCT 15 2012

VALID 152000Z - 161200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM SERN VA TO THE ERN
CAROLINAS...

ONLY MINOR CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE 20Z OUTLOOK...NAMELY TO
ADJUST THE BACK EDGE OF HIGHER SEVERE PROBS TO ALIGN MORE PROPERLY
WITH ORGANIZING PRE-FRONTAL LINE SEGMENTS OVER NC. IN THE ABSENCE
OF STRONGER INSTABILITY AND THE RELATIVELY WEAK MEAN LOW LEVEL
FLOW...ON THE ORDER OF 10-20 KT IN LOWEST 2KM...THE GREATEST SEVERE
THREAT SHOULD BE DUE TO ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
ADDITIONALLY...SHALLOW CONVECTION IS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
SFC FRONT ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. WHILE GUSTY WINDS MAY BE NOTED WITH
THIS FRONTAL ACTIVITY THE PROBABILITY OF SEVERE WINDS IS RELATIVELY
LOW. REF MCD 2062 FOR THE LATEST MESOSCALE GUIDANCE.

..DARROW.. 10/15/2012

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1058 AM CDT MON OCT 15 2012/

...SE VA TO THE ERN CAROLINAS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...
A WELL-DEFINED SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE OH VALLEY THIS MORNING WILL
PROGRESS EWD TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY EARLY TONIGHT. THE
MIDLEVEL TROUGH WILL BE PRECEDED BY A SURFACE COLD FRONT WHICH IS
NOW CROSSING THE APPALACHIANS. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...A BAND OF
RAIN/EMBEDDED CONVECTION IS WEAKENING GRADUALLY ACROSS CENTRAL
NC/VA. THOUGH CLOUDS WILL LINGER OVER THE CAROLINAS/VA THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...MODEST SURFACE HEATING E OF THE PRE-FRONTAL BAND...IN
COMBINATION WITH BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S...WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF MLCAPE OF 500-1000 J/KG THIS
AFTERNOON.

EXPECT ADDITIONAL CONVECTION TO FORM ALONG THE FRONT NEAR THE ERN
EDGE OF THE THICKER CLOUD COVER ACROSS CENTRAL VA/NC BY MID
AFTERNOON...AND THEN THE STORMS WILL SPREAD EWD TO THE COAST THIS
EVENING. A LINEAR CONVECTIVE MODE WILL BE FAVORED BY DEEP-LAYER
UNIDIRECTIONAL PROFILES WITH SHEAR VECTORS ORIENTED PARALLEL TO THE
FRONT. THOUGH LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND BUOYANCY WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY
STRONG...WILL MAINTAIN A LOW-END SLIGHT RISK FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING
GUSTS WITH EMBEDDED BOWING SEGMENTS.

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