DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 191931
SWODY1
SPC AC 191929

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0229 PM CDT FRI OCT 19 2012

VALID 192000Z - 201200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

LITTLE CHANGE WAS MADE TO THE PREVIOUS OUTLOOK REGARDING LOW SEVERE
PROBABILITIES FROM THE DELMARVA INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND. VISIBLE
IMAGERY SHOWS SOME HEATING TAKING PLACE...BUT INSTABILITY REMAINS
LOW GIVEN VERY STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR. CONTINUED HEATING AS WELL AS
LOW LEVEL BUOYANCY MAY STILL RESULT IN A MARGINAL WIND AND HAIL
THREAT WITH THE DIURNAL DEVELOPMENT.

ELSEWHERE...REMOVED GENERAL THUNDER AREA FROM WRN MT/NRN ID/ERN WA.
EXTENSIVE HIGH CLOUDS EXIST AND LACK OF HEATING WILL MEAN LITTLE IF
ANY INSTABILITY.

..JEWELL.. 10/19/2012

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1121 AM CDT FRI OCT 19 2012/

...MID ATLANTIC STATES INTO SWRN NEW ENGLAND...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A WELL-DEFINED MID/UPPER LEVEL DRY
INTRUSION ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE GREAT LAKES UPPER LOW...EXTENDING
FROM THE SRN APPALACHIANS NNEWD ACROSS CENTRAL PA AND WRN NY. THIS
IS NEAR THE WRN EDGE OF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AXIS...AND MAY
PROMOTE BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER AND A FEW REGIONS OF LOCALIZED
HEATING/DESTABILIZATION TO DEVELOP. A FEW STRONGER MAINLY LOW-TOP
THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONGER WIND GUSTS AND HAIL WILL
BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING BUT ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS
ARE NOT EXPECTED.

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