DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 250058
SWODY1
SPC AC 250056

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0756 PM CDT WED OCT 24 2012

VALID 250100Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

...SYNOPSIS...
MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT A SHORT WAVE IMPULSE ACCELERATING
NORTHEAST OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES THIS EVENING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A
CONSOLIDATING/DEEPENING SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY LATER TONIGHT...ALONG A SURFACE FRONT CURVING FROM THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WITH LARGE-SCALE
FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION STILL GENERALLY FOCUSED TO THE
COOL SIDE OF THE FRONT...WARM MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES ALONG AND SOUTH
OF THE FRONT HAVE INHIBITED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TO THIS
POINT...ASIDE FROM ONGOING ACTIVITY ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN INTO THE UPPER PENINSULA OF MICHIGAN AND WESTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR AREA. SLIGHT RISK SEVERE PROBABILITIES ARE BEING
MAINTAINED IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER
PENINSULA OF MICHIGAN/WISCONSIN/CENTRAL AND EASTERN IOWA INTO PARTS
OF SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND NORTHWEST MISSOURI...WHERE SHEAR AND
INSTABILITY MAY BE SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.
THE THREAT COULD INCLUDE SEVERE WIND/TORNADO...IF FORCING SUPPORTS
WARM SECTOR DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...AT THE CURRENT TIME...IT APPEARS
PROBABLE THAT INCREASING STORM DEVELOPMENT LATER TONIGHT WILL MOSTLY
BE TO THE COOL SIDE OF THE FRONT...WITH PRIMARILY A RISK FOR
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL...PERHAPS A FEW STRONG SURFACE GUSTS.

..KERR.. 10/25/2012

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.