DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 291243
SWODY1
SPC AC 291241

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0741 AM CDT MON OCT 29 2012

VALID 291300Z - 301200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
SATELLITE DATA SHOW SANDY CONTINUING TO MOVE NWD ATTM...WITH SOME
HINT THAT SYSTEM IS BEGINNING TURN SLIGHTLY W OF N AS IT INTERACTS
BOTH WITH NEGATIVE TILT UPR TROUGH/LOW THAT HAS FORMED OVER THE SRN
APPALACHIANS...AND WITH HIGHLY ANOMALOUS BLOCK OVER THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES. SANDY SHOULD TURN MORE WWD BY TNGT...REACHING THE MD-PA
BORDER AREA EARLY TUE /SEE NHC PRODUCTS FOR DETAILS/. WIDESPREAD
RAIN AND WIND WILL PRECEDE AND ACCOMPANY SANDY AS IT CONTINUES TO
UNDERGO EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION AND BECOMES ABSORBED WITHIN THE
LARGER-SCALE UPR LOW THAT WILL EVOLVE OVER THE REGION.

VERY WARM MID-LVL CORE OF SANDY...AND CONTINUED FLOW OF MODIFIED
POLAR AIR INTO ITS LWR LVL CIRCULATION...SHOULD CONTINUE TO PRECLUDE
TSTM DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE STORM CENTER. HOWEVER...SOME
DESTABILIZATION LIKELY WILL OCCUR LATER IN THE PERIOD OVER SRN/ERN
NEW ENGLAND...WELL NE OF SANDY AND THE DEVELOPING UPR LOW. THIS
COULD RESULT IN A THREAT FOR ISOLD SVR WEATHER...MAINLY AFTER 06Z
TUE.

ELSEWHERE...ZONAL FLOW WILL PREVAIL FROM THE PACIFIC NW TO THE NRN
PLNS. A DISTURBANCE IN THIS FLOW...AND DAYTIME HEATING...MAY YIELD
ISOLD LIGHTNING STRIKES LATER TODAY FROM ERN WA INTO WRN MT.

...NEW ENGLAND LATE TNGT/EARLY TUE...
AS SANDY TURNS MORE WWD TNGT...AND ASSOCIATED MID-LVL WARM CORE
CONTINUES INLAND...THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES WILL UNDERGO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGE OVER MUCH OF NEW ENGLAND. CURRENT EXTREMELY STABLE PROFILES
WILL BE REPLACED BY INCREASING LOW TO MID-LVL INSTABILITY AS LOW-LVL
WAA/MOISTURE TRANSPORT FROM THE ATLANTIC STRENGTHEN BENEATH COOLING
MID LVLS IN WAKE OF WARM CORE. COUPLED WITH SOME DEGREE OF UPR
DIVERGENCE AND DCVA...SETUP MAY YIELD AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR
LOW-TOPPED TSTMS AS 700-500 MB LAPSE RATES STEEPEN AND NEAR-SFC
LAPSE RATES APPROACH 7.0 C/KM. THE LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION/STORMS
COULD FOSTER DOWNWARD MIXING OF STRONGER FLOW ALOFT /50-60 KTS AT
850 MB/. IN ADDITION...STRENGTH OF LOW-LVL SPEED/DIRECTIONAL SHEAR
COULD POSE A RISK FOR LOW-LVL MESOS/BRIEF TORNADOES. SLIGHTLY
ELEVATED STORMS MAY SPREAD NWD ACROSS CNTRL AND NRN ME...WHERE ELY
COMPONENT TO LOW-LVL TRAJECTORIES LIKELY WILL RETARD SFC
DESTABILIZATION BENEATH STRONG MOISTURE INFLOW WITH THE SLY 850 MB
JET.

..CORFIDI/MOSIER.. 10/29/2012

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