DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 161953
SWODY1
SPC AC 161951

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0251 PM CDT TUE OCT 16 2012

VALID 162000Z - 171200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...20Z UPDATE...

THE CATEGORICAL /10 PERCENT/ THUNDERSTORM LINES HAVE BEEN MODIFIED A
BIT IN A COUPLE OF AREAS TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT/ANTICIPATED TRENDS.

...NRN ROCKIES/PLAINS...
THE PRIMARY AREA OF DESTABILIZATION AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY...ASSOCIATED WITH MID-LEVEL FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL
MOTION AND COLD AIR ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE DIGGING SHORT WAVE
TROUGH...ENHANCED BY OROGRAPHIC FORCING...APPEARS LIKELY TO SHIFT
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS WYOMING THROUGH 00-03Z. IT DOES NOT APPEAR OUT
OF THE QUESTION THAT HEATING BENEATH THE MID-LEVEL COLD POOL COULD
SUPPORT ADDITIONAL SCATTERED WEAK THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
INTERMOUNTAIN REGION THROUGH SUNSET. HOWEVER...EAST OF THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES...ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN MONTANA INTO THE WESTERN
DAKOTAS...EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER PROBABLY WILL LIMIT DESTABILIZATION
AND CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

...SRN/SE TEXAS INTO WESTERN GULF COAST...
FORCING FOR ASCENT AND DESTABILIZATION HAVE BECOME SUFFICIENT TO
SUPPORT RECENT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WEST OF LUFKIN. IT DOES NOT
APPEAR OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT ADDITIONAL WEAK THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY MAY OCCUR AND SPREAD SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTH
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS INTO MID/UPPER TEXAS COASTAL
AREAS...AHEAD OF A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE REGION
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

..KERR.. 10/16/2012

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1058 AM CDT TUE OCT 16 2012/

...SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER TROUGH LOCATED OVER THE PAC NW THIS MORNING WILL DIG SEWD
INTO THE NRN PLAINS BY TONIGHT. AS THIS OCCURS...A SURFACE COLD
FRONT WILL PROGRESS ACROSS THE NRN INTERMOUNTAIN W DURING THE
AFTERNOON...AND ENTER THE GREAT PLAINS AFTER SUNSET. A STEEP LAPSE
RATE ENVIRONMENT WILL AID IN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AS
THE UPPER TROUGH ADVANCES EWD FROM THE NRN ROCKIES INTO THE
CNTRL/NRN HIGH PLAINS. A FEW STORMS MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS.
MEANWHILE...A WEAK LEAD WAVE WILL MOVE FROM THE CNTRL PLAINS INTO
THE GREAT LAKES REGION TODAY. FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS FEATURE...AS WELL AS LOW-LEVEL WAA WITHIN THE EXIT REGION OF A
30-40 KT LOW-LEVEL SWLY JET WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AS
MODEST DESTABILIZATION OCCURS FROM THE LOWER/MID MS VALLEY INTO
LOWER MI. FARTHER S...A VERY MOIST AIRMASS LOCATED ALONG A
STATIONARY FRONT OVER FAR S TX WILL AID IN A FEW STORMS DURING THE
AFTERNOON. VEERING LOW-LEVEL WIND PROFILES AND VERTICAL VORTICITY
FOCUSED AROUND THE FRONT INVOF CRP MAY SUPPORT BRIEF UPDRAFT
ROTATION DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING...BUT THE THREAT FOR A
TORNADO APPEARS TO BE TOO LOW TO UPGRADE THE AREA. FARTHER E OVER
THE SRN FL PENINSULA...THE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE MAY YIELD A COUPLE
OF THUNDERSTORMS.

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.