DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 160545
SWODY2
SPC AC 160544

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1244 AM CDT TUE OCT 16 2012

VALID 171200Z - 181200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE AR...SE
MO...FAR SRN IL...FAR WRN KY...WRN TN AND NW MS...

...LOWER TO MID MS VALLEY...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DIG SEWD FROM THE GREAT PLAINS
SEWD INTO THE OZARKS WEDNESDAY AS A 75 TO 90 KT MID-LEVEL JET DIVES
INTO THE GREAT PLAINS. AT THE SFC...A COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE
QUICKLY SEWD INTO THE MID MS VALLEY AND ARKLATEX. STRONG LARGE-SCALE
ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND LIFT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE EXIT REGION OF THE MID-LEVEL JET WILL PROVIDE PLENTY OF
SUPPORT FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE SLIGHT RISK AREA
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. AS STORMS RAPIDLY INCREASE IN COVERAGE LATE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...MCS DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH A
CONVECTIVE CLUSTER OR LINE LIKELY PERSISTING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS AT LITTLE ROCK LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON SHOW
INSTABILITY PEAKING NEAR 2500 J/KG OF MLCAPE JUST BEFORE FRONTAL
PASSAGE WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S F. THIS ALONG WITH 0-6
KM OF AROUND 50 KT SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS. COLD TEMPS
ALOFT WILL HELP SUPPORT ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND LOW-LEVEL SHEAR
SHOULD BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR A TORNADO THREAT ESPECIALLY WITH THE
MORE DOMINANT SUPERCELLS. HOWEVER...STRONG LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AND
FRONTAL FORCING COULD RESULT IN A RAPID TRANSITION TO LINEAR MODE.
THESE FACTORS COMBINED WITH STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES EVIDENT ON
FORECAST SOUNDINGS COULD RESULT IN AN ENHANCED WIND DAMAGE THREAT AS
MCS DEVELOPMENT TAKES PLACE EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING. IT APPEARS
THERE IS A POSSIBILITY FOR A CONCENTRATED SEVERE THREAT EVENT
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS ECNTRL AR. THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD DROP
OFF WITH NEWD EXTENT ACROSS SE MO...SRN IL AND FAR WRN KY DUE TO A
LACK OF DESTABILIZATION. A SHARP DROP OFF IN THE SEVERE THREAT
SHOULD ALSO EXIST ACROSS THE ARKLATEX DUE TO THE STRONG CAP IN
PLACE.

..BROYLES.. 10/16/2012

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