DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 280529
SWODY2
SPC AC 280527

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1227 AM CDT SUN OCT 28 2012

VALID 291200Z - 301200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SRN NEW ENGLAND...

HURRICANE SANDY REMAINS ON TRACK TO MOVE ONSHORE ALONG THE NJ COAST.
POOR LAPSE RATES ARE EXPECTED TO LIMIT TSTM ACTIVITY WITH THE WARM
CORE AS IT MOVES INLAND...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE UNFAVORABLE LOW LEVEL
TRAJECTORIES ACROSS NY INTO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC. HOWEVER...LATE IN
THE PERIOD THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT HIGHER BUOYANCY PLUME WILL
TRANSLATE NWWD INTO PORTIONS OF SRN NEW ENGLAND IN THE WAKE OF
SANDY. COOLING PROFILES AND STEEPENING LAPSE RATES SHOULD BECOME
MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEEP CONVECTION CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LIGHTNING.
GIVEN THAT STRONG SHEAR WILL LINGER ACROSS THIS REGION HAVE
INTRODUCED FIVE PERCENT SEVERE PROBS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE POSSIBILITY
OF ISOLATED SEVERE WIND GUSTS NEAR LIGHTNING PRODUCING ECHOES.

...NRN ROCKIES...

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FROM PORTIONS OF ERN
WA/ORE INTO ID MONDAY IN ADVANCE OF PROGRESSIVE SHORT-WAVE
TROUGH/SPEED MAX. GREATEST THREAT WILL OCCUR DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS AS SFC TEMPERATURES WARM THROUGH THE 50S TO NEAR 60F WHICH
COULD YIELD A FEW HUNDRED J/KG SBCAPE...LIKELY SUFFICIENT FOR
LIGHTNING WITH THE STRONGEST UPDRAFTS.

..DARROW.. 10/28/2012

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