DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 031659
SWODY2
SPC AC 031658

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1158 AM CDT WED OCT 03 2012

VALID 041200Z - 051200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE MID/LOWER-MS VALLEY WILL BE KICKED
NEWD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST/NEW ENGLAND BY EARLY FRI AS A SHORT WAVE
TROUGH OVER THE NRN HIGH PLAINS MOVES EWD ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST
TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. A SURFACE CYCLONE ATTENDANT TO THE LATTER
TROUGH WILL PROGRESS ACROSS MN INTO NWRN ONTARIO. A SHARP COLD FRONT
WILL PUSH EWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...WITH TRAILING PORTION
STALLING OVER THE SRN PLAINS.

...SRN PLAINS...OZARK PLATEAU...
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE LIMITED AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT IN THE CNTRL CONUS...BUT COMPARATIVELY GREATER ALONG THE
TRAILING PORTION OF THE FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS N-CNTRL TX INTO ERN OK.
HERE...DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT MAY
BE SUFFICIENT FOR A SURFACE-BASED STORM OR TWO...BUT PERSISTENT
WLYS/WARM TEMPERATURES AT 700 MB SHOULD MITIGATE SUSTAINED UPDRAFTS.

WEAK MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS OVERSPREADING THE REGION THU NIGHT IN
CONJUNCTION WITH LOW-LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD YIELD
ELEVATED/POST-FRONTAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT NEWD TOWARDS THE OZARK
PLATEAU. CLOUD-BEARING SPEED SHEAR AND STEEP MID/UPPER-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES WILL SUPPORT A RISK FOR SEVERE HAIL. BUT IT APPEARS THAT WHERE
MUCIN IS MINIMIZED...MUCAPE MAY REMAIN WEAK WITH A PROGRESSIVELY
STRONGER CAPPING INVERSION WITH SWRN EXTENT.

..GRAMS.. 10/03/2012

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