DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 061706
SWODY2
SPC AC 061705

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1205 PM CDT SAT OCT 06 2012

VALID 071200Z - 081200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
WITH LITTLE OVERALL PATTERN FLUCTUATION EXPECTED...SEVERAL SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS WILL PROGRESS THROUGH A BROADER LONGWAVE TROUGH ENCOMPASSING
THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE CONUS/CANADA. THE PERVASIVENESS OF
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED COOL/DRY CONTINENTAL
TRAJECTORIES WILL CONSIDERABLY LIMIT TSTM POTENTIAL ON SUNDAY.
HOWEVER...ISOLATED TSTMS WILL NONETHELESS BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST STATES NEAR A COLD FRONT...AND PERHAPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS.

...SOUTHEAST STATES/FL...
SOME UNCERTAINTY EXISTS REGARDING THE TIMING OF A SOUTHEASTWARD
MOVING COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY...SPECIFICALLY
REGARDING THE TIMING OF THE FRONT AND ITS OFFSHORE MOVEMENT FOR
COASTAL PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS/GA. REGARDLESS...ISOLATED TSTMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE COLD FRONT...AND PERHAPS WITHIN THE
IMMEDIATE POST-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT WITH FORCING MAXIMIZED ON THE
COOL SIDE OF THE FRONT. SHOULD A SLOWER FRONTAL ADVANCEMENT
MATERIALIZE...SOME STRONG/SEVERE TSTM THREAT CANNOT BE ENTIRELY
DISCOUNTED WITHIN A LINGERING WARM SECTOR ACROSS IMMEDIATE COASTAL
PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS. BUT...A MORE PROBABLE EARLY OFFSHORE-EXIT
OF THE COLD FRONT...AND ITS UNDERCUTTING NATURE...SUGGESTS THAT
SEVERE POTENTIAL IS MUCH TOO LOW TO WARRANT SEVERE PROBABILITIES AT
THIS TIME.

WITH THE AID OF A MOIST ENVIRONMENT AND SEA BREEZE
CIRCULATIONS...OTHER TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN FL PENINSULA SUNDAY AFTERNOON. ORGANIZED SEVERE TSTMS ARE
UNLIKELY.

...NORTH TX/FAR SOUTHERN OK...
AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGS SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES/SOUTHERN PLAINS ON SUNDAY...WARM ADVECTION ATOP A SLOPING
FRONTAL ZONE COULD CONTRIBUTE TO A FEW ELEVATED TSTMS. HOWEVER...THE
OVERALL SCENARIO APPEARS QUITE MARGINAL WITH A TSTM PROBABILITY
AROUND 10 PERCENT...WITH EXPECTATIONS FOR WEAK/SPORADIC TSTMS AT
BEST. THIS IS LARGELY ATTRIBUTABLE TO THE LIKELIHOOD OF
MARGINAL/UNCERTAIN CHARGE SEPARATION COINCIDENT WITH THE
WELL-ELEVATED BUOYANCY LAYER.

..GUYER.. 10/06/2012

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