DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS03 KWNS 120722
SWODY3
SPC AC 120720

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0220 AM CDT FRI OCT 12 2012

VALID 141200Z - 151200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE OH AND TN VALLEYS...

...OH AND TN VALLEYS/LOWER MS VALLEY...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE OZARK PLATEAU LATE SATURDAY NIGHT IS
FORECAST TO DEAMPLIFY AND MOVE QUICKLY EWD ACROSS THE MID-MS VALLEY
SUNDAY. AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...A BROAD LOW-LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO
MOVE EWD ACROSS THE OH AND TN VALLEYS SUNDAY. AT THE BEGINNING OF
THE PERIOD...THE MODELS SUGGEST A DECAYING LINEAR MCS MAY BE ONGOING
ALONG THE WRN EDGE OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET FROM IL SSWWD INTO THE
OZARKS. AS THIS LINE MOVES EWD AND SFC TEMPS WARM...REGENERATION OF
THE LINE MAY OCCUR OR NEW CELL INITIATION SHOULD TAKE PLACE.
ALTHOUGH THE GFS MODEL IS SLIGHTLY SLOWER WITH THE LINE THAN THE NAM
SUNDAY...CONSENSUS PLACES A LINEAR MCS FROM IND AND OH SSWWD ACROSS
WRN TN INTO NRN MS BY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS SQUALL-LINE SHOULD
MOVE EWD ACROSS THE SLIGHT RISK AREA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS AT 21Z SUNDAY ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE
SQUALL-LINE FROM INDIANAPOLIS SSWWD TO NEAR TUPELO MS SHOW MLCAPE
AROUND 1000 J/KG WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S F. DEEP
LAYER SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE FROM 35 KT IN THE TN VALLEY TO AROUND
50 KT IN THE OH VALLEY. THIS INSTABILITY AND SHEAR COMBINATION
SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR A SEVERE THREAT LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY SUNDAY EVENING. A THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS MAY EXIST
WITH THE LINE MAINLY DUE TO THE STRONG LOW-LEVEL WINDS JUST ABOVE
THE SFC. FURTHER NORTH AND WEST ACROSS THE LOWER OH
VALLEY...ISOLATED LARGE HAIL MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE DUE TO COLDER
MID-LEVEL TEMPS AND STRONGER DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROFILES.

..BROYLES.. 10/12/2012

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