DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS03 KWNS 160717
SWODY3
SPC AC 160716

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0216 AM CDT TUE OCT 16 2012

VALID 181200Z - 191200Z

AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE APPALACHIAN
MTNS ON THURSDAY...ROTATING AROUND AN EXPANSIVE UPPER-LEVEL LOW
CENTERED OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY. AT THE SFC...A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH
SHOULD DEVELOP FROM ERN VA SSWWD ACROSS THE CAROLINAS INTO SE
GA...ALONG WHICH THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING
THE AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH SFC DEWPOINTS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE
LOWER TO MID 60S ACROSS ERN NC AND FAR ERN SC...THE MODELS KEEP THE
STRONGER INSTABILITY OFFSHORE. ALSO...LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE NNEWD INTO THE CNTRL
APPALACHIAN MTNS PROVIDING LITTLE SUPPORT FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT IN THE CAROLINAS. FOR THIS REASON...CONVECTIVE COVERAGE
SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED ALONG THE ERN SEABOARD. DUE TO THE WEAKNESS
IN INSTABILITY ALONG THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY IS NOT EXPECTED.

..BROYLES.. 10/16/2012

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