DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS03 KWNS 230731
SWODY3
SPC AC 230730

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0230 AM CDT TUE OCT 23 2012

VALID 251200Z - 261200Z

...SYNOPSIS...
AN EAST-NORTHEASTWARD SHIFTING LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL REMAIN PREVALENT
OVER THE WESTERN/CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE CONUS/CANADA ON
THURSDAY...WITH TSTM /AND ANY SEVERE/ POTENTIAL TIED TO AN
EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD MOVING COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES
REGION TO THE OZARKS/SOUTHERN PLAINS.

...MIDWEST/MIDDLE MS RIVER VALLEY...
SCATTERED CONVECTION MAY DIURNALLY INTENSIFY THURSDAY AFTERNOON
ALONG/AHEAD OF THE EASTWARD-ADVANCING COLD FRONT...ALTHOUGH THE MAIN
BRUNT OF THE UPPER TROUGH/ASSOCIATED FORCING FOR ASCENT IS LIKELY TO
GRADUALLY SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM THE REGION /TOWARD CANADA/.
DESTABILIZATION NEAR/AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL LIKELY REMAIN MEAGER
THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WITH CURRENT INDICATIONS THAT THE SPATIALLY
NARROW /ESPECIALLY WITH NORTHWARD EXTENT/ PRE-FRONTAL MOIST SECTOR
WILL BE LIMITED TO 500-750 J/KG OR LESS. EVEN SO...MODEST
PRE-FRONTAL HEATING/DESTABILIZATION AND A STRONG/UNIDIRECTIONAL DEEP
LAYER WIND FIELD MAY LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME STRONG
LOW-TOPPED LINE SEGMENTS THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. WHILE A
PARTICULARLY ORGANIZED/SUSTAINED SEVERE RISK IS NOT CURRENTLY
EXPECTED...LOW PROBABILITIES APPEAR WARRANTED FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF
SEVERE WIND/PERHAPS SOME HAIL POTENTIAL.

..GUYER.. 10/23/2012

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