MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2026

ACUS11 KWNS 062140
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 062139
FLZ000-070015-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2026
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0439 PM CDT SAT OCT 06 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...FL PENINSULA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 062139Z - 070015Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING MAY
CONTAIN STRONG WIND GUSTS. IT IS UNLIKELY THAT STORMS WILL REACH SVR
LIMITS...AND THUS A WW IS NOT NEEDED.

DISCUSSION...ELY LOW-LEVEL FLOW AROUND A SWRN NORTH ATLANTIC HIGH IS
ENHANCING FRICTIONAL CONVERGENCE INVOF THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE
WHERE DIURNAL CONVECTION HAS BEEN MOST ABUNDANT. WEAKER CONVERGENCE
INVOF THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE HAS BEEN FOSTERING ONLY ISOLATED
CONVECTION. STORMS OVER THE ERN HALF OF THE FL PENINSULA WILL
CONTINUE ADVANCING TOWARD INTERIOR SECTIONS BEFORE EVENTUALLY
APPROACHING THE WEST COAST AFTER 2230Z...PERHAPS MERGING WITH
ONGOING ACTIVITY FARTHER W. MODEST DEEP SHEAR PER MELBOURNE VWP DATA
WILL OCCASIONALLY SUPPORT MULTICELL STRUCTURES. WHERE CONVECTIVE
OVERTURNING HAS NOT ALREADY TAKEN PLACE...AREAS OF STRONG
INSTABILITY AIDED BY RELATIVELY COOL 500-MB TEMPERATURES -- I.E.
MINUS 8.1C AND MINUS 9.7C PER 12Z MIAMI AND TAMPA BAY AREA
RAOBS...RESPECTIVELY -- WILL SUPPORT INTENSE UPDRAFTS/DOWNDRAFTS.
AND...WITH PW OF 1.8 TO 2.0 INCHES...A FEW WET MICROBURSTS WITH
STRONG WIND GUSTS MAY OCCUR. THE ABSENCE OF STRONGER DEEP SHEAR WILL
LIMIT STORM ORGANIZATION AND ANY SVR THREAT.

..COHEN/MEAD.. 10/06/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW...JAX...

LAT...LON 28838265 29328300 29468294 29568284 29638230 29488151
29158122 28368082 27428047 26388034 25828079 25958150
26558203 27388259 28388261 28838265

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