MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2038

ACUS11 KWNS 122238
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 122237
OKZ000-TXZ000-122330-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2038
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0537 PM CDT FRI OCT 12 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN AND S-CNTRL OK...FAR NW TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 122237Z - 122330Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...TSTM COVERAGE HAS INCREASED INVOF A STATIONARY FRONT OVER
PORTIONS OF SWRN AND S-CNTRL OK. SOME POTENTIAL FOR HAIL AND A DMGG
WIND GUST...AND PERHAPS A BRIEF/WEAK TORNADO...COULD ACCOMPANY THE
STRONGER STORMS. GIVEN THE ANTICIPATED ISOLATED/MARGINAL NATURE OF
THE THREAT...A WW IS NOT BEING CONSIDERED ATTM.

DISCUSSION...SFC ANALYSIS FROM 22Z PLACES A STATIONARY FRONT FROM 20
SW CDS TO 25 N FSI...WITH ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER EVIDENT N OF THE
FRONT PER RECENT VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES. RECENT BREAKS IN CLOUD
COVER TO THE S OF THE FRONT HAVE ALLOWED FOR POCKETS OF STRONG
HEATING THIS AFTERNOON...WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE MID 80S F
OVER SWRN OK. THIS HAS AIDED IN TSTM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS SWRN
OK...WHERE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALSO APPEARS TO BE ENHANCED WITH
10-15 MPH WINDS OBSERVED. HOWEVER...TRENDS SHOW TSTMS ARE QUICKLY
MOVING N OF THE FRONT INTO A MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT.

SOME POTENTIAL FOR HAIL/WIND...AND POSSIBLY A TORNADO...COULD
ACCOMPANY THE STRONGEST STORMS ALONG/S OF THE FRONT GIVEN FAVORABLE
/BUT WEAK/ VEERING 0-1 KM AGL WINDS NOTED IN REGIONAL VWP DATA...AND
THE PRESENCE OF ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND LOW LCL HEIGHTS. CURRENT
TRENDS SUGGEST ANY THREAT WILL LIKELY BE CONFINED/BRIEF...WHICH MAY
PRECLUDE THE NEED FOR A WW. WITH TIME...LOW-LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO
STRENGTHEN AND SHOULD RESULT IN A NWD RETREAT OF THE FRONT.

..ROGERS/HART.. 10/12/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...LUB...AMA...

LAT...LON 35059720 34579801 34009957 33990021 34220054 34510045
35159934 35299901 35559829 35479755 35419743 35059720

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