MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2039

ACUS11 KWNS 122250
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 122250
TXZ000-NMZ000-130015-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2039
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0550 PM CDT FRI OCT 12 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN NM/WEST TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 122250Z - 130015Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

SUMMARY...SEVERE TSTM POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THROUGH
EARLY/MID EVENING ACROSS SOUTHEAST/EAST-CENTRAL NM INTO WEST TX.
LARGE HAIL IS THE PRIMARY HAZARD...BUT DAMAGING WINDS AND A TORNADO
OR TWO MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY/MID EVENING. CLOSELY
MONITORING FOR A WATCH...WHICH COULD BE NEEDED WITHIN THE HOUR.

DISCUSSION...WELL DOWNSTREAM OF A POTENT CLOSED LOW NEAR THE LOWER
CO RIVER VALLEY...THE LEADING /EASTERN/ EDGE OF LARGE SCALE HEIGHT
FALLS/IMPLIED FORCING FOR ASCENT APPEARS TO BE SPREADING EASTWARD
EARLY THIS EVENING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. WITH A
RELATIVELY MOIST WARM SECTOR AT A WESTERN LONGITUDE /55-65 F SURFACE
DEWPOINTS IN EASTERN NM/...INCREASING FORCING FOR ASCENT SHOULD LEAD
TO AN INCREASING NUMBER OF TSTMS THIS EVENING. SUCH DEVELOPMENT IS
ALREADY OCCURRING ACROSS SOUTHEAST NM NEAR CARLSBAD AS OF
2230Z...AND MORE RECENTLY NEAR THE LUBBOCK/PLAINVIEW TX AREAS. IN
ALL...IT IS PROBABLE THAT ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL DEVELOP WITHIN THE
WARM SECTOR ACROSS SOUTHEAST/EAST-CENTRAL NM AND WEST TX ALONG AND
SOUTH OF A ROUGHLY WEST-EAST EFFECTIVE BOUNDARY THIS EVENING.

LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS IS INDICATIVE OF MODEST INHIBITION WITH
MLCAPE ON THE ORDER OF 1500-2000 J/KG. AS DEEP LAYER WINDS/VERTICAL
SHEAR STEADILY INCREASES THIS EVENING...WIND PROFILES/INSTABILITY
WILL BE WELL-SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL. WHILE
LOW-LEVEL SHEAR/SRH IS INITIALLY MODEST SOUTH OF THE
EAST-CENTRAL/NORTHEAST NM AND TX PANHANDLE EFFECTIVE BOUNDARY...MASS
RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING UPPER SYSTEM WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A STEADY
INCREASE OF LOW-LEVEL SHEAR THIS EVENING...A TREND ALREADY NOTED PER
THE CANNON AFB NM WSR-88D VWP /200 0-1 KM SRH/. AS SUCH...A TORNADO
OR TWO WILL BE ALSO BE POSSIBLE WHERE SUPERCELLS INDEED OCCUR/REMAIN
SUSTAINED THROUGH EARLY/MID EVENING.

..GUYER/HART.. 10/12/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ...

LAT...LON 32070446 33690420 35110372 35670228 35370110 34390069
32190185 31150277 31260372 32070446

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