MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2060

ACUS11 KWNS 141911
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 141911
MIZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-142115-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2060
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0211 PM CDT SUN OCT 14 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN IL...NWRN IND....FAR SWRN LOWER MI

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 141911Z - 142115Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...BAND OF TSTMS ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF A SURFACE COLD FRONT
MAY INTENSIFY SOMEWHAT AS ACTIVITY SPREADS QUICKLY E/NEWD. LOCALIZED
DAMAGING WINDS IS THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT.

DISCUSSION...19Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACED A 995 MB CYCLONE OVER NWRN
LOWER MI AND A 996 MB CYCLONE OVER NWRN IL. BROKEN BAND OF TSTMS HAS
DEVELOPED FROM NERN TO W-CNTRL IL ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE LATTER
CYCLONE AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT. WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES HAVING
ONLY WARMED INTO THE LOWER 70S AHEAD OF THIS ACTIVITY AND DEW POINTS
MIXING INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S...MLCAPE REMAINS MEAGER FROM
250-500 J/KG. NEVERTHELESS...WITH 1 KM AGL FLOW AROUND 40-45 KT PER
AREA VWP DATA AMIDST SLIGHT STRENGTHENING OF THE SURFACE PRESSURE
RISE/FALL COUPLET...SETUP COULD YIELD MODEST INTENSIFICATION OF THE
LINE WITH A PRIMARY RISK OF LOCALIZED DAMAGING WINDS.

..GRAMS/THOMPSON.. 10/14/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...IWX...GRR...IND...LOT...ILX...LSX...

LAT...LON 42128823 42408792 42728646 42698584 42078569 41178595
39938681 39378766 39318839 39228909 39498944 42128823

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