MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2062

ACUS11 KWNS 151840
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 151839
NCZ000-SCZ000-151945-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2062
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0139 PM CDT MON OCT 15 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...NERN SC AND ERN NC

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 151839Z - 151945Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A FEW STORMS MAY BECOME CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A STRONG WIND
GUST...GENERALLY REMAINING SUB-SVR...ACROSS NERN SC AND ERN NC INTO
THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. A LIMITED SVR WEATHER THREAT
SUGGESTS A WW IS NOT WARRANTED AT THIS TIME.

DISCUSSION...AT 1820Z...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY/LIGHTNING DATA SHOWED
A BROKEN LINE OF TSTMS EXTENDING FROM SERN NC /INVOF HOKE COUNTY/
SWD INTO NERN SC /DILLON AND FLORENCE COUNTIES/. THIS ACTIVITY HAD
DEVELOPED ALONG A PRE-FRONTAL WIND SHIFT WHERE SURFACE TEMPERATURES
IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 F HAVE AIDED IN BOOSTING MLCAPE TO
500-1000 J/KG. THIS COMBINED WITH FORCING FOR ASCENT WITHIN THE
ENTRANCE REGION OF A SLY 100 KT UPPER LEVEL JET SHOULD SUPPORT
ADDITIONAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON...AS THIS WIND
SHIFT AND COLD FRONT ADVANCE ENEWD. EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 35-50
KT ORIENTED PARALLEL TO THE SURFACE BOUNDARIES IS MORE THAN
SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT ORGANIZATION/LINE SEGMENTS. HOWEVER...THE
MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND WEAK MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE EXPECTED TO
LIMIT THE COVERAGE FOR STRONGER/SUSTAINED STORMS. RELATIVELY WEAK
LOW LEVEL WINDS ACROSS NERN SC INTO MUCH OF ERN NC PER AREA WSR-88D
VADS SUGGEST A STRONGER WIND GUST THREAT SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED.

FARTHER N...LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE STRONGER INTO SERN VA...BUT LIMITED
SURFACE HEATING HAS GREATLY REDUCED BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION
SUCH THAT TSTM DEVELOPMENT AND/OR STORMS MOVING INTO THIS REGION
SHOULD REMAIN WEAK.

..PETERS/THOMPSON.. 10/15/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...

LAT...LON 35097910 36237741 36277599 35997584 34777672 34507738
33887805 33617904 33697954 33997982 35097910

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