ACUS11 KWNS 181907
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 181907
MDZ000-WVZ000-PAZ000-VAZ000-KYZ000-182030-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2076
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0207 PM CDT THU OCT 18 2012
AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL APPALACHIANS
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 181907Z - 182030Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
SUMMARY...ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD/DEVELOP
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS THROUGH THE MID-LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS.
DISCUSSION...A NARROW CORRIDOR OF STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES HAS
DEVELOPED AHEAD OF ADVANCING COLD FRONT FROM WRN VA...NWD ACROSS WV
INTO EXTREME SWRN PA. PARTIAL BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER HAVE ALLOWED
SFC TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE LOWER-MID 70S ALONG THIS AXIS
WHICH IS COINCIDENT WITH LEADING EDGE OF MOISTURE SURGE ALONG WEST
SLOPES OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN. AS A RESULT A FEW ROBUST
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE EVOLVED...A FEW EXHIBITING WEAK
ROTATION/SUPERCELL CHARACTERISTICS. ALTHOUGH STRONG DEEP LAYER
SHEAR WOULD OTHERWISE SUGGEST ORGANIZED LONGER LIVED
UPDRAFTS...CURRENT THINKING IS NARROW/WEAK CORRIDOR OF INSTABILITY
WILL LIMIT SEVERITY OF THIS ACTIVITY...THOUGH HAIL MAY APPROACH
SEVERE LEVELS AND GUSTY WINDS MAY ACCOMPANY THE STRONGEST STORMS.
..DARROW/THOMPSON.. 10/18/2012
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...RNK...PBZ...RLX...JKL...
LAT...LON 37488255 38758130 39958039 39747940 38607991 37228144
37488255
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.
Subscribe to:
Post Comments (Atom)
No comments:
Post a Comment