DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 010532
SWODY1
SPC AC 010530

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1230 AM CDT THU NOV 01 2012

VALID 011200Z - 021200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...NRN ROCKIES...

THERMAL TROUGH ATTENDING THE PROGRESSIVE UPPER LOW NOW LOCATED ALONG
THE PACIFIC NW COAST WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NRN ROCKIES ON
THURSDAY. DIABATIC WARMING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN COMBINED WITH THE
COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL CONTRIBUTE TO STEEPENING LAPSE RATES
AND AT LEAST WEAK INSTABILITY /MUCAPE AOB 300 J/KG/. SCATTERED
CONVECTION WILL LIKELY CONTINUE IN ASSOCIATION WITH FORCING FOR
ASCENT ATTENDING VORTICITY MAXIMA ROTATING THROUGH THE UPPER LOW.
SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MIGHT BECOME CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LIGHTNING
STRIKES...BUT THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SPARSE DUE
TO LIMITED INSTABILITY.

...S TX...

THE 00Z RAOB FROM BROWNSVILLE FROM LAST EVENING SHOWS MODERATE
/2000+ J/KG/ MLCAPE AND ONLY WEAK CONVECTIVE INHIBITION...AND A FEW
SHOWERS AS WELL AS A COUPLE OF THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OFF THE
S TX COAST AS OF LATE WEDNESDAY EVENING. UPPER FORCING IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN WEAK THIS PERIOD. HOWEVER...WITH LIGHT NWLY WINDS ALOFT
THE CAP IS NOT LIKELY TO STRENGTHEN SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THE DAY.
CONCERN IS THAT SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS MIGHT BE SUFFICIENT TO
INITIATE ISOLATED STORMS OVER S TX THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

..DIAL.. 11/01/2012

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