DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 011237
SWODY1
SPC AC 011235

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0735 AM CDT THU NOV 01 2012

VALID 011300Z - 021200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
UPR LOW WILL REMAIN ESSENTIALLY QSTNRY OVER THE LWR GRT LKS AS
EXISTING CENTER DRIFTS N INTO WRN QUE...WHILE ANOTHER CENTER FORMS
OVER LK HURON AND TRACKS SE INTO WRN PA IN RESPONSE TO JET STREAK
AMPLIFYING SE ACROSS LK SUPERIOR. FARTHER W...WA/ORE TROUGH EXPECTED
TO WEAKEN AS IT CONTINUES E TO THE NRN RCKYS TODAY...ALTHOUGH IT MAY
NEVERTHELESS FOSTER SCTD DIURNALLY-ENHANCED STORMS OVER THE REGION.
ELSEWHERE...SEVERAL DISTURBANCES IN THE WEAKER SRN STREAM WILL ONCE
AGAIN BOOST TSTM POTENTIAL ALONG LOW-LVL CONFLUENCE FEATURES OVER
GULF OF MEXICO.

DRY TO VERY DRY MODIFIED POLAR AIR WILL PREVAIL OVER MUCH OF THE
CONUS...LIMITING INSTABILITY OVER MOST AREAS. HOWEVER...BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY INCREASE OVER THE WRN GULF
AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF S TX. AT THE SAME TIME...MOISTURE ALSO WILL
INCREASE ALONG W-E CONFLUENCE AXIS OVER THE NRN GULF OF MEXICO EWD
INTO CNTRL AND SRN PORTIONS OF THE FL PENINSULA.

...ERN WA/ORE INTO NRN RCKYS...
MID LVL COOLING/ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH PROGRESSIVE UPR TROUGH...AND
SFC HEATING...MAY SUFFICIENTLY STEEPEN LAPSE RATES
TO YIELD WEAK INSTABILITY /MUCAPE AOB 300 J/KG/ AND A POTENTIAL FOR
SCTD DIURNAL STORMS. SUCH ACTIVITY SHOULD BE MOST CONCENTRATED ALONG
PATH OF ASSOCIATED UPR VORT MAX NOW CROSSING NW ORE.

...S TX EWD ACROSS NRN GULF INTO CNTRL FL...
MODERATE SFC-BASED INSTABILITY /2000+ J/KG/ WITH MINIMAL CIN SHOULD
ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP WITH DAYTIME HEATING IN MOISTENING ENVIRONMENT
OVER S TX. WHILE UPR LVL FORCING WILL REMAIN WEAK...SEA-BREEZE
CIRCULATIONS WILL FOSTER LOW-LVL UPLIFT. A FEW STRONG AFTN STORMS
MAY OCCUR...BUT ORGANIZED SVR WEATHER APPEARS UNLIKELY. FARTHER
E...ISOLD STORMS ALSO MAY FORM OVER CNTRL AND PERHAPS SRN PARTS OF
THE FL PENINSULA...WHERE UPLIFT LIKELY WILL CONCENTRATE ALONG
AFOREMENTIONED W-E CONFLUENCE AXIS.

..CORFIDI/MOSIER.. 11/01/2012

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