DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 101301
SWODY1
SPC AC 101259

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0659 AM CST SAT NOV 10 2012

VALID 101300Z - 111200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE UPR MS VLY SSW INTO
PARTS OF THE SRN PLNS...

...SYNOPSIS...
DEEP GRT BASIN TROUGH WILL ADVANCE SLOWLY E TO THE RCKYS THIS
PERIOD...WHILE HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO RISE ACROSS THE ERN THIRD OF THE
NATION. SHORTWAVE IMPULSE/JET STREAK NOW NEARING THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION SHOULD TURN NNE AND REACH THE ERN DAKOTAS/WRN MN BY 12Z SUN
AS UPSTREAM SPEED MAX NOW IN CA CONTINUES SE INTO AZ/NM.

AT LWR LVLS...SFC LOW NOW OVER NE CO EXPECTED TO EDGE ESE INTO NW KS
BY THIS EVE...WHILE ANOTHER LOW EVOLVES NEAR ERN NEB AND DEVELOPS
NNE TO SE SD/NW IA. BY 12Z SUN...THE LOWS LIKELY WILL HAVE
CONSOLIDATED OVER N CNTRL MN...WITH ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT TRAILING
SSW INTO SE KS/N CNTRL OK/NW TX. THE FRONT...AND A LEE TROUGH/WIND
SHIFT AHEAD OF IT...WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR TSTMS...AND A
CONDITIONAL RISK FOR SVR WEATHER...THIS PERIOD.

...UPR MS/MID MO VLYS SSW INTO NW TX LATE TODAY THROUGH TNGT...
VERY STRONG...DEEP SSW TO SWLY FLOW AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPR TROUGH
WILL PROVIDE AMPLE SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED/SUSTAINED TSTMS LATER TODAY
THROUGH EARLY SUN...ALTHOUGH RATHER LIMITED BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE
AND EXPANSIVE EML CAP WILL LIMIT OVERALL MAGNITUDE AND
SPATIAL/TEMPORAL EXTENT OF SVR THREAT.

EXPECT THAT INITIAL STORMS WILL FORM LATE THIS AFTN ALONG LEE
TROUGH/WIND SHIFT LINE IN WRN/CNTRL KS SSW INTO ERN PORTIONS OF THE
TX/OK PANHANDLES AS HEATING AND APPROACH OF LEAD UPR IMPULSE SERVE
TO BREACH CAP. 500 TO 1000 J/KG MLCAPE...ABSENCE OF STRONG LINEAR
FORCING /I.E..STRONG DCVA/ AND 50-60 KT SSW TO SWLY CLOUD-LAYER
SHEAR SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR A FEW LONGER-LIVED DISCRETE SUPERCELLS
WITH A THREAT FOR HAIL...LOCALLY DMGG WIND...AND PERHAPS A COUPLE
TORNADOES IN AXIS OF MODEST LOW-LVL MOISTURE /SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE
MID TO UPR 50S F/.

WITH TIME...STORMS SHOULD EXPAND NNEWD BEYOND THE LEE TROUGH INTO
ERN NEB AND PERHAPS WRN/SRN MN AS COLD FRONT ADVANCES E/SE ACROSS
THE MID MO VLY. WEAK BUOYANCY SHOULD LIMIT STORM STRENGTH WITH NWD
EXTENT...ALTHOUGH ISOLD/POSSIBLY ELEVATED STRONG TO SVR ACTIVITY
COULD REACH AS FAR N AS NRN MN. OVER TIME...STORMS SHOULD TEND
TOWARD A FORCED LINEAR MODE ALONG OR JUST AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...ESPECIALLY FROM NRN KS NWD...WITH A CONTINUED RISK FOR
LOCALLY DMGG WIND/MARGINALLY SVR HAIL.

FARTHER S THROUGH KS INTO OK/NW TX...STORMS MAY REMAIN MIXED IN
MODE...WITH SOME SEMI-DISCRETE ACTIVITY POSSIBLY LINGERING THROUGH
LATE EVE. A MORE QUASI-LINEAR MODE IS EXPECTED LATE TNGT AS COLD
FRONT ACCELERATES SEWD. AN ISOLD SVR THREAT WITH THIS ACTIVITY COULD
PERSIST THROUGH EARLY SUN AS SOMEWHAT RICHER MOISTURE BEGINS TO
SPREAD N ACROSS THE RED RVR. OVERALL...HOWEVER...SVR THREAT SHOULD
SLOWLY DIMINISH LATER TNGT/EARLY SUN.

..CORFIDI/BOTHWELL.. 11/10/2012

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