ACUS01 KWNS 221243
SWODY1
SPC AC 221241
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0641 AM CST THU NOV 22 2012
VALID 221300Z - 231200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
MORNING WV IMAGERY CURRENTLY SHOWS AN UPPER TROUGH ENTERING THE NRN
HIGH PLAINS. THIS FEATURE WILL AMPLIFY SOMEWHAT DURING THE DAY AS IT
MOVES ACROSS THE MS VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT. AT THE
SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE IS SITUATED JUST N OF THE MN/CANADIAN
BORDER...AND IS FORECAST TO LIFT NEWD TOWARDS JAMES BAY DURING THE
AFTERNOON. AS THIS TAKES PLACE...A COLD FRONT TRAILING TO THE SW
WILL BECOME POSITIONED FROM THE UP OF MI SWWD INTO MO AND ACROSS NRN
TX INTO THE TRANS PECOS BY 23/00Z. DURING THE NIGHT...THE FRONT WILL
ACCELERATE EWD INTO THE OH VALLEY...WHILE THE SRN SEGMENT MOVES SWD
ACROSS CNTRL TX.
...OK NEWD INTO LOWER MI...
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE WARM SECTOR AIRMASS THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE
LOW TO MID 50S OVER OK...AND 40S NEWD ACROSS MO INTO LOWER MI.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW LIMITED BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION WILL
TAKE PLACE DURING THE AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL RESULT IN WEAK MUCAPE
VALUES ROOTED WELL ABOVE THE SURFACE. THUS...DESPITE STRONG FRONTAL
FORCING FOR ASCENT AND FAVORABLE WIND PROFILES FOR ORGANIZED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS EXPECTED TO
BE LOW TODAY DUE TO THE UNFAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT.
..GARNER/MEAD.. 11/22/2012
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