Wednesday, November 21, 2012

DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 220033
SWODY1
SPC AC 220031

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0631 PM CST WED NOV 21 2012

VALID 220100Z - 221200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SRN NM/FAR WEST TX...

EARLY EVENING WV IMAGERY DEPICTS A FAIRLY WELL ORGANIZED UPPER VORT
APPROACHING FAR WEST TX. A BAND OF TSTMS HAS DEVELOPED IMMEDIATELY
AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE OVER NERN MEXICO WITHIN A POCKET OF SBCAPE ON
THE ORDER OF 500-1000 J/KG. GIVEN THAT MARGINAL
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY EXISTS ACROSS THE BIG BEND REGION THIS
CONVECTION SHOULD NOT DISSIPATE BEFORE IT SPREADS INTO THE HIGH
COUNTRY OF WEST TX. 00Z SOUNDINGS ACROSS THIS REGION SUGGEST
SCATTERED CONVECTION...SOME OF IT MAY REACH DEPTHS SUPPORTIVE OF
LIGHTNING...MAY ALSO SPREAD ACROSS SERN NM TOWARD THE SRN HIGH
PLAINS OF TX. HOWEVER...BUOYANCY AND INHIBITION ARE CONSIDERABLY
MORE HOSTILE DOWNSTREAM ACROSS NWRN TX AND CONVECTION SHOULD WEAKEN
AS IT SPREADS INTO THIS REGION DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

..DARROW.. 11/22/2012

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