DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 081938
SWODY1
SPC AC 081936

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0136 PM CST THU NOV 08 2012

VALID 082000Z - 091200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

IN THE WAKE OF TRANSITORY SHOWERS...WEAK LAPSE RATES AND POOR
INSTABILITY WILL LIMIT THE DEPTH OF CONVECTION ALONG THE SRN CA
COAST THE REST OF THE PERIOD. FOR THIS REASON HAVE DROPPED TSTM
THREAT.

ELSEWHERE...NOT CHANGES TO EARLIER OUTLOOK.

..DARROW.. 11/08/2012

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1007 AM CST THU NOV 08 2012/

...WEST COAST...
WATER VAPOR LOOPS SHOW AN UPPER LOW TRACKING SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD
JUST OFF THE COAST OF WA/ORE. STRONG ONSHORE FLOW AND SUFFICIENTLY
STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY RESULT IN ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES
LATER TODAY FROM NORTHERN CA INTO WESTERN ORE.

...SOUTHERN CA...
A WEAK SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM IS MOVING SLOWLY EAST-NORTHEASTWARD
TOWARD SOUTHERN CA. MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING OFF THE COAST OF
SOUTHERN CA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND POSSIBLY AFFECTING THE
IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS.

...ORE/ID...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN OCCURRING ACROSS PARTS OF
SOUTHEAST ORE AND CENTRAL ID AS A WELL-DEFINED BAROCLINIC LEAF
STRUCTURE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. THIS POTENTIAL WILL PERSIST
THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON BEFORE DIMINISHING AFTER DARK.

...SOUTHERN AZ...
YET ANOTHER WEAK UPPER SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS NORTHWEST MEXICO AND
AFFECT SOUTHERN AZ THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...POSING A RISK FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

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