DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 131945
SWODY1
SPC AC 131943

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0143 PM CST TUE NOV 13 2012

VALID 132000Z - 141200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...20Z UPDATE...FL...
SHOWERS ARE CURRENTLY DEVELOPING NEAR THE STALLED OR SLOW MOVING
FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA...IN ASSOCIATION WITH MODEST BOUNDARY
LAYER DESTABILIZATION...CHARACTERIZED BY CAPE OF 500 TO 1000 J/KG.
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT REMAINS WEAK...HOWEVER... AND FORCING
FOR LARGE-SCALE ASCENT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON IS
UNCLEAR. WHILE THE RISK FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS BEING
MAINTAINED ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN FLORIDA AND THE
PENINSULA...PROBABILITIES SEEM GENERALLY NEAR THE 10 PERCENT MINIMUM
THRESHOLD AT BEST.

..KERR.. 11/13/2012

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0948 AM CST TUE NOV 13 2012/

...SYNOPSIS/FORECAST...
ZONAL FLOW WILL PREVAIL ACROSS MOST OF THE CONUS WHILE A WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PROGRESSES ACROSS NM/W TX THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO
THE LWR MS VALLEY BY 12Z/WED. HIGH PRESSURE HAS SETTLED IN ACROSS
MUCH OF CNTRL/ERN CONUS IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT WHICH NOW
EXTENDS FROM ME SSWWD INTO THE FL PANHANDLE AND THEN SWWD ACROSS THE
CNTRL GULF. AS A RESULT...MOST OF THE TSTM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN OFF THE E COAST. THE ONLY EXCEPTIONS ARE CNTRL FL... WHERE
MODEST BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE...DAYTIME HEATING...AND WEAK
INSTABILITY MAY RESULT IN ISOLATED TSTMS...AND S TX.

NM SHORTWAVE WILL SLIGHTLY STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES EWD...PROVIDING
MODEST LIFT ACROSS S TX. ONGOING ELEVATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ACROSS S
TX ARE SUPPORTED BY THIS INCREASING LIFT AND A VERY THIN MOIST LAYER
AROUND 750 MB /PER 12Z DRT RAOB/. GIVEN THE CURRENT TRENDS PLUS
EXPECTATION OF CONTINUED LIFT AND AT LEAST SOME MOISTURE ADVECTION
AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE...ADDED GENERAL THUNDER ACROSS A PORTION OF S
TX.

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