DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 151921
SWODY1
SPC AC 151919

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0119 PM CST THU NOV 15 2012

VALID 152000Z - 161200Z

...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

NO CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE ONGOING FORECAST.

..COHEN/GOSS.. 11/15/2012

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1026 AM CST THU NOV 15 2012/

...COASTAL PLAINS OF THE CAROLINAS SWD TO THE ERN FL PENINSULA...
THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS A MID-LEVEL VORT MAX TRACKING
EWD ACROSS THE SRN APPALACHIANS. A COMPACT LOBE OF ASCENT LEADING
THIS FEATURE IS SUPPORTING A BROAD SHIELD OF PRECIPITATION WITH
LITTLE /IF ANY/ DEEP CONVECTION OVER PARTS OF THE CAROLINAS. A
DECREASING LIGHTNING TREND HAS BEEN NOTED DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF
HOURS...SUGGESTING THAT THE ASCENT IS PHASING WITH VERY MEAGER
INSTABILITY...AT MOST. AND...WITH THE 12Z MOREHEAD CITY NC SOUNDING
DEPICTING A NARROW-CAPE PROFILE WITH JUST OVER 100 J/KG OF CAPE FOR
A PARCEL LIFTED FROM AROUND THE 700-MB LEVEL...LIGHTNING WILL REMAIN
UNLIKELY AS THE VORT MAX TRACKS TOWARD THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS.

FARTHER SOUTH...DEEP DRY AIR WITH A HISTORY OF SUBSIDENCE IS
WRAPPING AROUND A BROADER AREA OF CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS SRN GA AND FL
PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...WITH 12Z RAOBS ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA
INDICATING A STABLE LAYER CENTERED AROUND THE 700-MB LEVEL. THESE
FACTORS...ALONG WITH ONLY MARGINAL BOUNDARY-LAYER INSTABILITY --
BEING HINDERED BY WIDESPREAD LOW-LEVEL STRATUS -- AND ONLY WEAK
LOW-LEVEL ASCENT...WILL LIKELY INHIBIT ANY CONVECTION FROM BECOMING
SUFFICIENTLY DEEP TO SUPPORT LIGHTNING.

MORE SUBSTANTIAL BUOYANCY AND ANY THREAT FOR LIGHTNING ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS BEYOND 20 NAUTICAL MILES FROM THE
COAST. AS SUCH...THE GENERAL-THUNDERSTORM AREA HAS BEEN REMOVED.

...ELSEWHERE...
STABLE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES ARE EXPECTED TO PREVENT THE
DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY-1 PERIOD.

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