DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 290426
SWODY1
SPC AC 290424

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1024 PM CST WED NOV 28 2012

VALID 291200Z - 301200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
IN THE WAKE OF A SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE TROUGH NOW ACCELERATING EAST
OF THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD...UPPER FLOW EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
APPEARS LIKELY TO BECOME MORE ZONAL DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
WHILE ANOTHER COLD SURFACE RIDGE MAY NOSE SOUTHEASTWARD INTO PARTS
OF THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST...THE SURFACE HIGH CENTER NOW NEAR
THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY SHIFT EASTWARD INTO
THE SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST. BUT SURFACE RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO
LINGER ALONG AN AXIS WESTWARD THROUGH THE WESTERN GULF COAST
REGION...WHICH PROBABLY WILL LIMIT ANY SUBSTANTIVE MOISTURE RETURN
OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO TO PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN/SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS
THROUGH AT LEAST 12Z FRIDAY. WHILE FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO INDICATE
THE DEVELOPMENT OF WEAK POTENTIAL INSTABILITY IN ASSOCIATION WITH
THIS MOISTENING...A GENERALLY SUBSIDENT MID/UPPER REGIME IS EXPECTED
TO MINIMIZE THE RISK FOR THUNDERSTORMS.

ACROSS THE WEST...LARGE-SCALE EASTERN PACIFIC UPPER TROUGHING MAY
BEGIN TO DEVELOP EASTWARD INTO THE PACIFIC COAST STATES...WHILE
DOWNSTREAM RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS.
HOWEVER...THE MID-LEVEL COLD CORE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL
OFFSHORE THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY AND BEYOND. SOME MID-LEVEL COOLING IS
FORECAST EARLY IN THE PERIOD ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST AND
CASCADES...WITH PERHAPS ANOTHER MODEST EASTWARD SURGE ACROSS PARTS
OF OREGON AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COASTAL AREAS...WHERE IT STILL
APPEARS THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES COULD BECOME SUPPORTIVE OF A COUPLE
OF THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS.

..KERR/ROGERS.. 11/29/2012

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