DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 281942
SWODY1
SPC AC 281940

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0140 PM CST WED NOV 28 2012

VALID 282000Z - 291200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...NRN/CNTRL CA COAST INTO THE CNTRL VALLEY...
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE FOR ANOTHER 2-3 HOURS THIS
AFTERNOON AS MAIN UPPER FORCING ADVANCES INLAND. BY 23-00Z...MODEST
MID LEVEL WARMING/DRYING WILL RESULT IN LIMITED THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

...LEE OF LAKE ONTARIO...
THUNDER PROBS HAVE BEEN REMOVED FROM THE LAKE ONTARIO REGION IN NY.
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED FORCING ARE ALREADY PROGRESSING
ACROSS/TO THE EAST OF THE AREA AND STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP.

..LEITMAN/PETERS.. 11/28/2012

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1111 AM CST WED NOV 28 2012/

RETRANSMITTED PER REQUEST.

...NRN/CNTRL CA COAST INTO THE CNTRL VALLEY TODAY...

A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ONSHORE LATE THIS MORNING INTO
EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE WEAKENING AS IT PROGRESSES THROUGH THE GREAT
BASIN TONIGHT. A CORRIDOR OF 500-MB HEIGHT FALLS APPROACHING 100
M/12 HR WILL ATTEND THIS SYSTEM...RESULTING IN STEEPENING MIDLEVEL
LAPSE RATES. WHEN COUPLED WITH MOISTENING...ONSHORE FLOW IN THE
LOW-LEVELS...THE SETUP WILL YIELD POCKETS OF WEAK INSTABILITY AND
THE POTENTIAL FOR SPORADIC LIGHTNING ACTIVITY. NO SEVERE WEATHER IS
ANTICIPATED.

ELSEWHERE...SENSIBLE MOISTURE AND HEAT FLUXES OFF LAKE ONTARIO WILL
PROMOTE WEAK BUOYANCY AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SHALLOW CONVECTION
CAPABLE OF ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES TODAY INTO THIS EVENING.

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