DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 151231
SWODY1
SPC AC 151229

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0629 AM CST THU NOV 15 2012

VALID 151300Z - 161200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS/FORECAST...
MULTI-STREAM...FAIRLY LOW-AMPLITUDE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
CONUS THROUGH FRI. THE NRN STREAM ACROSS CNTRL/SRN CANADA WILL
REMAIN DOMINANT...WITH WEAKER SRN BRANCHES CONTINUING FROM SRN CA
AND THE SRN GRT BASIN INTO THE SRN PLNS...AND FROM THE CNTRL PLNS TO
THE S ATLANTIC CST. A DISTURBANCE IN THE LATTER BRANCH...NOW OVER
WRN SC...SHOULD REACH SRN NC THIS EVE AND THE VA CAPES EARLY FRI AS
UPSTREAM IMPULSE CONTINUES ESE INTO THE MID MS/LWR OH VLYS.

AT THE SFC...LARGELY ANTICYCLONIC CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL...WITH
SUBSIDENT...MODIFIED POLAR AIR OVER MOST AREAS. SCTD ELEVATED
CONVECTION/ISOLD TSTMS LIKELY WILL PERSIST ATOP THIS SHALLOW COOL
DOME OVER PARTS OF THE SERN STATES TODAY...BEFORE ASCENT AND COOL
AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH SC UPR IMPULSE MOVE OFFSHORE.

IN THE W...A DEAMPLIFYING SRN STREAM TROUGH WILL APPROACH CNTRL CA
LATE IN THE PERIOD. MID-LVL COOLING...MOISTENING...AND ASCENT WITH
THIS FEATURE COULD YIELD LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION...BUT
ASSOCIATED ELEVATED BUOYANCY EXPECTED TO REMAIN TOO FEEBLE/SHALLOW
FOR LIGHTNING.

..CORFIDI/SMITH.. 11/15/2012

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