DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 141256
SWODY1
SPC AC 141254

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0654 AM CST WED NOV 14 2012

VALID 141300Z - 151200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS/FORECAST...
TWO-STREAM...LARGELY ZONAL FLOW WILL PREVAIL OVER THE WRN AND CNTRL
STATES THIS PERIOD...WHILE SRN STREAM IMPULSE NOW OVER AR FURTHER
AMPLIFIES AS IT CONTINUES ESE INTO GA. AT THE SFC...WEAK FRONT WILL
REMAIN NEARLY STNRY FROM THE CNTRL GULF OF MEXICO ENE ACROSS N CNTRL
FL TO OFF CAPE HATTERAS. DRY...STABLE AIR WILL PREVAIL AT LWR LVLS
OVER MOST OF THE CONUS.

SFC HEATING MAY PROVE SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE SCTD CONVECTION DEEP
ENOUGH TO YIELD THUNDER OVER THE FL PENINSULA TODAY...WHERE
RELATIVELY WARM/MOIST AIR WILL PERSIST S OF STALLED FRONT. THE
CONVECTION SHOULD BE MAINLY DIURNAL...AND SHOULD FOCUS ALONG BOTH
THE FRONT AND SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES. SOME OF THE STORMS
WILL...HOWEVER...LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH EARLY THU OVER THE SHELF
WATERS OF THE NERN GULF...AND OVER THE GULF STREAM OFF ERN FL/GA/SC.

OTHER TSTMS ARE EXPECTED LATER TODAY INTO TNGT ACROSS N
FL...GA...AND ADJACENT PARTS OF AL AND SC AS LARGE SCALE ASCENT
INCREASES AND MID LVL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN WITH THE APPROACH OF AR
UPR IMPULSE. THE STORMS WILL BE ELEVATED ATOP A FAIRLY DEEP
SFC-BASED COOL DOME. WHILE A FEW INSTANCES OF HAIL CANNOT BE RULED
OUT...ESPECIALLY THIS EVE...MAGNITUDE OF BOTH ELEVATED BUOYANCY AND
CLOUD-LAYER SHEAR SHOULD REMAIN TOO WEAK FOR THE ACTIVITY TO POSE A
RISK FOR SVR WEATHER.

..CORFIDI/SMITH.. 11/14/2012

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