DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 060510
SWODY1
SPC AC 060508

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1108 PM CST MON NOV 05 2012

VALID 061200Z - 071200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
A MID/UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PIVOT AROUND A BROADER AREA OF
CYCLONIC FLOW COVERING THE ERN CONUS...WHICH WILL BE REINFORCED OVER
ITS WRN FLANK BY A DISTURBANCE SHIFTING SSEWD ACROSS THE MS VALLEY.
A SFC LOW WILL DEVELOP ENEWD/NEWD ALONG A FRONTAL ZONE EXTENDING
FROM THE NERN GULF OF MEXICO ACROSS N FL AND INTO THE WRN N
ATLANTIC. THE LOW WILL TAKE MORE OF A NWD TRACK TONIGHT OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST WHILE RAPIDLY DEEPENING OWING TO THE INCREASING
SPATIAL PROXIMITY BETWEEN THE MID/UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND THE SFC
LOW/BAROCLINIC ZONE ATOP THE WARM GULF STREAM WATERS. ANY
RESIDUAL...SFC-BASED...INLAND WARM SECTOR OVER THE SERN CONUS WILL
BE PROGRESSIVELY SHUNTED OFFSHORE AS THE FRONT TRAILING SWWD FROM
THE SFC LOW CLEARS FL FROM NW TO SE.

...THE FL PENINSULA TODAY...
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING THIS MORNING OVER THE NERN GULF
OF MEXICO INVOF THE SFC FRONT. THE MOST INTENSE STORMS WILL BE FOUND
IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO THE FRONTAL LOW...WITH AN ACCOMPANYING
THREAT FOR STRONG CONVECTIVE WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 12Z AND 17Z ACROSS
THE WRN FL COAST FROM SRN PARTS OF THE FL BIG BEND TO NEAR TAMPA BAY
AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. AN ISOLATED SVR WIND GUST CANNOT BE
COMPLETELY RULED OUT IN THIS REGION DURING THE MORNING
HOURS...ESPECIALLY IF ORGANIZED BOWING SEGMENTS CAN BE MAINTAINED
THROUGH THE NIGHT OVER THE RELATIVELY WARMER...MORE MOIST...AND
MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS OVERLAYING THE NERN GULF WATERS. THE
PRESENCE OF 50-65 KT OF 500-MB FLOW WILL OFFER SUFFICIENT DEEP SHEAR
FOR SUCH RISK.

HOWEVER...FACTORS THAT WILL LARGELY MITIGATE THE SVR POTENTIAL OVER
LAND INCLUDE THE FOLLOWING: /1/ THE LACK OF DIURNAL HEATING
HINDERING INLAND DESTABILIZATION...THUS LESSENING THE POTENTIAL FOR
STRONGER CONVECTION TO BE MAINTAINED OVER LAND AND REDUCING THE
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS TO BE MANIFESTED AT THE SFC...
/2/ THE RELATIVELY WEAK LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELD SURROUNDING THE FRONTAL
LOW AS IT CROSSES N FL...AND /3/ THE STRONGER 500-MB HEIGHT
FALLS/ASCENT RESIDING NORTH OF THE FL WARM SECTOR. AS SUCH...SVR
PROBABILITIES HAVE NOT BEEN INTRODUCED...WITH THE MORE SUBSTANTIAL
SVR THREAT LIKELY REMAINING OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF THE NERN
GULF EARLY IN THE PERIOD.

BY EARLY AFTERNOON...MID/UPPER ASCENT ACCOMPANYING THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY SPATIALLY REMOVED FROM THE FRONT AS
IT PROGRESSES SEWD ACROSS FL. AS SUCH...FRONTAL ASCENT WILL BECOME
MORE SHALLOW...AND FRONTAL CONVERGENCE/ASCENT WILL DECREASE WITH
TIME. WITH ONLY MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND MODEST PW AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...STORMS WILL LIKELY DECREASE IN NUMBER/INTENSITY THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AS THEY NEAR SOUTH FL...ESPECIALLY IF CONVECTIVE DEBRIS
CLOUDS FURTHER MITIGATE DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION.

..COHEN/BUNTING.. 11/06/2012

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