ACUS01 KWNS 041606
SWODY1
SPC AC 041603
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1003 AM CST SUN NOV 04 2012
VALID 041630Z - 051200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ALONG THE SE ATLANTIC COAST
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...
...SOUTHEAST STATES...
BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW IS PRESENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES TODAY...WITH A FEW NOTABLE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ROTATING THROUGH
THE MEAN FLOW. ONE SHORTWAVE FEATURE IS SHOWN ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY OVER EAST TX. THIS SYSTEM WILL TRACK EAST-NORTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE GULF COAST REGION TODAY AND INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES
TONIGHT. LIFT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WILL HELP TO INITIATE CONVECTION
ALONG A SURFACE COLD FRONT SAGGING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING OVER THE LA/SRN MS PORTION OF THE
BOUNDARY...WITH DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON FARTHER
EAST INTO AL/GA. A FEW OF THESE STORMS COULD PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS.
MOST MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM
ALONG THE FRONT OVER EAST GA/WEST SC BY LATE AFTERNOON AND TRACK
EASTWARD/OFFSHORE DURING THE EVENING. THIS REGION WILL SEE
SUBSTANTIAL HEATING THROUGH THE DAY...PROVIDING STEEP LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND MUCAPE VALUES OF 500-1000 J/KG. RATHER STRONG
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND COOL MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES MAY BE
SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW STRONG/SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS
AND HAIL. THE THREAT SHOULD SUBSIDE RATHER QUICKLY AFTER DARK.
..HART/BOTHWELL.. 11/04/2012
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