DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 270057
SWODY1
SPC AC 270055

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0655 PM CST MON NOV 26 2012

VALID 270100Z - 271200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PARTS OF SRN AND ERN TX
EWD INTO SRN AR/LA/WRN MS...

...SRN AND ERN TX EWD INTO PARTS OF AR/LA/MS...
STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED JUST AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT ACROSS
CENTRAL TX THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...WITH NEW CONVECTION NOW
DEVELOPING OVER PARTS OF NERN TX AND ADJACENT NWRN LA/SRN AR NEAR A
WEAK FRONTAL WAVE. THE CONVECTION IS BEING FUELED BY A ZONE OF
MODERATE WARM-SECTOR INSTABILITY /1000 TO 1500 J/KG MIXED-LAYER
CAPE/...AS A MOIST /MID 60S DEWPOINTS/ BOUNDARY LAYER ADVECTS NWD
BENEATH FAIRLY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES.

WHILE CONVECTION IS FORECAST TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS AS THE FRONT SHIFTS SEWD...OVERALL ORGANIZATION/SEVERITY
OF THE STORMS SHOULD REMAIN SOMEWHAT SUBDUED GIVEN ONLY MODEST FLOW
ALOFT. STILL...POTENTIAL FOR MARGINALLY-SEVERE HAIL AND LOCALLY
GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE WELL INTO THE EVENING. WITH TIME...A SEWD
SHIFT IN THE THREAT TOWARD THE TX COAST IS EXPECTED AS THE FRONT
ADVANCES...WHILE FARTHER E A LIMITED THREAT MAY SLOWLY EXPAND EWD
ACROSS THE MS VALLEY. FOR ADDITIONAL SHORT-TERM
INFORMATION...PLEASE REFER TO RECENTLY ISSUED SWOMCD PRODUCTS ACROSS
THIS AREA.

..GOSS.. 11/27/2012

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